February 1 was a new day that the British awakened to with a mixture of hope and anxiety that is almost in equal measure. At midnight Brussels time, 11pm in London on January 31, the island nation of the United Kingdom snapped ties with the European Union a few years short of a marriage that would have soon celebrated a golden jubilee. Johnson promises his people the hope of a new dawn, but it won’t be an easy divorce, and the mess caused by it is yet to be straightened. As a member of the Europe Parliament said, UK can’t live in splendid isolation. And that’s where the anxiety stems from.
While most of the British Members of the European Parliament waved the Union Jack in the European Parliament in glee, those from Scotland and the rest of Europe did not see that there was much to be glad about. Moments after the European Parliament voted to ratify Brexit, the MEPs stood, and holding hands sang the ever-popular Auld Lang Syne to bid au revoir, not adieu, to the United Kingdom, in the hope that it will return. The division among the UK MEPs was evident, as the Scots who feel they have been dragged out of the EU, hope to come back to Brussels and take their seats in the EU Parliament some time again and soon.
The Brexit political fallout has already seen two Conservative Prime Ministers quitting, and the UK now cannot ignore the demands from Scotland for independence that are growing louder. This could even change the map of the country. Free of the fetters that kept it tied to mainland Europe, the country’s foreign policy also could change. The country can choose to follow the Europe line on international issues, or align with the United States, with whom it has always had a strong relationship. Johnson has a strong majority in the House of Commons, and will therefore be able to take forward his plans for the country. But that’s just the political angle to Brexit.
What, however, is the most worrisome at the current point of time is the economic fallout that one can’t even begin to comprehend. For the UK, the next 11 months are going to be extremely hectic. The free trade across borders in Europe will now end and the country will have to enter into new trade deals. With Brexit done, UK and the EU now have time to get down to the trade deals that will benefit both. UK has a transition period that ends on December 31, 2020 so as yet nothing changes, and the EU rules still prevail. It is what happens 11 months from now, in the New Year 2021, that remains unpredictable. It all depends on the deal that the UK and the EU reach in the few months ahead.
For both, it won’t be an easy task. For the past three years, Britain and the EU, like sparring partners have been negotiating a deal that they could not finalise. They have till the end of this year to come to terms on all the departure details and arrive at a deal that will keep Britain afloat in the sea of uncertainty that it has caused to occur. At the same time, the many citizens from EU countries in the UK and the British citizens in the EU will be waiting to learn what lies ahead for them once the transition period ends.
