At least the recent Assembly election results in Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya portray this trend. BJP has already pronounced that they are heading for 2024 general elections while the Congress is resting after its fanfare ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ and yet undecided how to take-on BJP in the 2024 general elections.
The two north-eastern States of Nagaland and Tripura, which were ruled by the Congress and the Left CPI (M) earlier, have been usurped by the new entrant BJP which started pussy-footing in northeastern states as late as 2010. The voters of these two states gave the BJP and its allies yet another term instead of bringing in the change their rivals had promised. For the BJP, the results are like a bonus award for its sustained work in the state of Tripura, the bastion of the Left. In the state, the party and its regional ally, the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura, won 33 seats, nine fewer than in last Assembly elections in 2018 but two more than the majority mark in the 60-member Assembly.
In Tripura, the seat-sharing pact with the Left Front and Congress did not work for the Left, however, the Congress got a fresh lease of life. The Left Front won 11, five fewer than the 16 it won in last Assembly elections while Congress won three as against none five years ago. The Tipra Motha, a new party floated by the royal family of Tripura, won 13 of the 42 seats it contested, in the tribal regions. The BJP’s victory can be attributed to an improved law-and-order situation, cash incentives such as a monthly social allowance of Rs 2,000 for the poor and providing 1.6 lakh houses under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana. Not to forget that one-third of the Tripura state shares border with Bangladesh. The BJP also appears to have consolidated the non-tribal voters who were wary by the rise of the Tipra Motha, the new entrant.
The Christian community in Meghalaya, which accounts for nearly 75 per cent, continues to be sceptical of the BJP but its counterparts in Nagaland have warmed up to it. In Meghalaya, charges of corruption by the rival parties including BJP and Trinamul Congress (TMC) against the National People’s Party (NPP), a party floated by the former Speaker of Lok Sabha, Congress leader and leader of Nationalist Congress Party Purno Agitok Sangma who also served as Chief Minister of the state, now run by his son Conrad K Sangma the incumbent Chief Minister, did not work.
The NPP won 26 seats, six more than in 2018 while its allies in the outgoing government, the United Democratic Party and the BJP, won 11 and two, respectively; they all contested as individual party with no pre-poll or post-poll alliance. The NPP’s pan-Meghalaya presence across two hill regions dominated by the Garo and the Khasi-Jaintia communities kept it in good stead, while the TMC’s attempt to gain a foot-hold faltered as it was seen as a party from West Bengal with no connection to the state of Meghalaya. The Congress, the only party that had acceptance across the State earlier, now has a face-saving shadow of itself, winning five seats, a huge fall from its 2018 tally of 21.
The Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and the BJP have retained power in Nagaland, a State which had ceased to have an Opposition in the outgoing Assembly. The BJP managed to retain its 2018 score of 12 seats while the NDPP won 25, seven more than in 2018. The rest of the seats in the 60-member Assembly have gone to smaller allies of the BJP, ruling out the possibility of any opposition in the new Assembly too. Overall it seems that BJP is the biggest gainer while Congress and Left are struggling to find space in their lost ground. However, the real test will be deciphered when the 2024 general elections results will be announced on whether the BJP has actually managed to spread its colours across India.
