Lately it is being observed that China has resorted a very un-soldierly act of trying to violate Indian border by very primitive means of using various hand held appliances like combinations of rods and sticks and other primitive methods.
There must be some motive behind it. China does not do anything without any ulterior motive, Let’s try to analyse what might be the ultimate strategic game plan of China. Consequently, a clear understanding of China’s grand strategy is required to be understood to understand the implications of Chinese activities in a regional dimension.
China’s main interests in South Asia would be restrict India’s rise in economic and military power thus restricting her influence in the South Asia region in achieving influence and leverage over smaller South Asian states and curb her influence on the Indian Ocean.
Due to her geopolitical advantage India is having unhindered access to Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea ultimately leading to Indian Ocean which carries 50% of the global trade and 70% of the oil trade along with all the fleets of the major nations are prowling through it. A major fleet out of all is U.S. Indo-Pacific Command created in recognition of the increasing connectivity between India and Pacific Ocean.
Besides India have close proximity to all the littoral countries of eastern part of India and western part of South Asian countries which can be used as porft facilities.
To counter this China is creating port facilities across this region in places like Chittagong and Sonadia and Payra in Bangladesh; Hamgantrota in Srilalnka; Gwadar in Pakistan and Kyaukpu in Myanmar. American naval experts have named it as the Chinese String of Pearls Strategy, India is considered as the neck. Additionally port calls by Chinese Submarines to Sri Lanka and Pakistan in 2014 and 2015 respectively, showcase China’s expanding ambitions in the region. A Chinese submarine’s request for port call to Sri Lanka during PM Modi’s visit to the island this year was the most recent case in point.
The successful conclusion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Summit in Beijing recently has raised a number of questions about India’s strategy to counter the Chinese project. The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative which China is implementing along with other partners is primarily aimed at strengthening its economy which was impacted by the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. Through this flagship scheme China will develop large-scale projects in infrastructure such as roads, railway lines, sea ports and airports. Such extensive activity will ensure Chinese influence and clout in different parts of the world. The expanding role undertaken by Beijing via OBOR especially in South Asia has made India apprehensive. China has even bypassed India’s concern and contention on the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which passes through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). This project will run through about 154 countries thus if successful, though it seems to be facing some hurdles, will allow China to have tremendous potential in influencing world affair.
China, despite being economically (17 trillion country) and militarily the largest , in a multi-polarised era, cannot unilaterally dictate terms. India has its own part to play. It has vast potential to influence the South and South Asia region besides the international trade. China, thus, at present intends to acquire greater leverage in South Asia through trade and investment. China no longer concedes South Asia as India’s sphere of influence. China is gradually eclipsing India as the main trading partner with South Asian states. Additionally China has favorable trade balances with all South Asian countries including India. A piece in the Economic Times of India stated “Debts are turning into equity and finally ownership for Chinese firms that will not only adversely impact Sri Lankan and Pakistani economies but also create security implications for India due to China’s constant presence in the periphery. This has major lessons for Bangladesh and Nepal where China has assured to invest billions”.
While India has direct and near access to Indian Ocean and China has a long way through East and South China, besides not too friendly littoral countries enroute to Indian Ocean it is trying to expand its Navy to be able to exert influence in the Indian Ocean region as its 7o% fuel pass through Indian Ocean and become ‘Blue water navy’. China’s Maritime Silk Road also lays pronounced weight on developing trade and investment links with states that lie in the IOR.
The China-Pakistan nexus is by far the most important and dynamic relationship in South Asia, accentuating China’s desire to maintain a foothold in the Indian Ocean. China most likely will seek to establish additional military bases in countries with which it has a longstanding friendly relationship and similar strategic interests, such as Pakistan.
Clear comprehension of China’s strategies and interests is very essential to formulate policies and positions in order to deal with the rise/reemergence of China, especially in the context of South Asia.
With this background we may try to relate present attitude of China in resorting to primitive weapons to confront India. Does it have bigger game plan, does it want to incite India beyond a point to take advantage of some agitated action by India? China’s interest in letting India down is unquestionable.
