Everyone is eagerly waiting for the monsoon to strike in full flow. The rise in temperature along with the increase in humidity is causing serious discomfort. If there are sporadic showers then the heat rises in those areas even more. The monsoon generally arrives in the State around June 6 to 7 and then it pours incessantly for about a week. This prompts the farmers to begin their agricultural works. Twenty one days of June have passed and the month will conclude in a week. And yet, there are no clear signs of monsoon arriving in the State. Although it drizzles at night, the weather in no way is signaling that the monsoon has begun.
The situation is not worrisome where one would feel afraid of stepping out of the house without carrying their raincoats and umbrellas. The rains during Shravan month feels much heavier than the slight drizzles which are felt currently. It was predicted that the monsoon will be delayed due to the cyclone. The cyclone hit Gujarat, wrecked rain havoc in Rajasthan, but the rains did not make its presence felt in Goa as yet. It was surprising when it was announced that the monsoon had reached Mumbai.
Usually the South West monsoon travels from Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Goa, Konkan coast and then Mumbai. However, the sudden arrival of rains in Mumbai was abrupt. A week later, the monsoon has disappeared from everywhere yet again. A drizzle to remind that these are rainy days, is all that the people are experiencing at the moment. However, this helps neither the storage of water in dams nor is it helping agriculture.
The farming is done in many villages to date and seasonal monsoon vegetables are always in demand. The government too, is putting in efforts to bring more barren land under cultivation. The agricultural department is providing subsidies from 75% to 90%. For all this to bear fruits, quite literally, the monsoon is a crucial factor. It is certain that the adverse effects of the continued delay in the arrival of the monsoon will be felt on the rural economy.
The Central government stores foodgrains in food reserves and so, there will not be deaths by starvation. However, the wide difference between demand and supply will cause inflation under which the middle class will be crushed. Many people have suffered financial setbacks during the pandemic. While they are still on the trail of recovery, another problem has arisen. If the rains play hide and seek any longer, then the fear of famine could become a reality for the very first time in Goa. The process of sowing for the kharif crops has been delayed and if the monsoon does not come down in sufficient time, then it will impact the production of the kharif crops. This may lead to rise in comestibles in the near future. This will deprive people of some relief that they have been experiencing on the front of inflation for the past few months. RBI too, had expressed fear over this.
RBI governor Shaktikanta Das after MPC’s meeting this year had feared that El Nino will have a major influence on inflation. The repo rate has been steady, courtesy the inflation rate being under control for the past few months. If the inflation rate stays low then it is possible that the repo rate will drop down. There is fear of a rise in loan instalments due to inflation. The monsoon has more impact on the economy of the rural areas. The consumption based sectors such as edibles, clothes, vehicles, electronics and equipment would be impacted. Hence, this is a small example of what would happen if the monsoon would elude Goa for just one season. In fact, the State is going through a water crisis since most of the people are dependent on water stored in dams for drinking water. If enough water is not saved in the dams during monsoons then the government might face the question of how to supply water to people next year. Almost all the crops here are dependent on monsoon. About 17% of gross production in our country is dependent on agriculture. More than half of the labour force works in this industry. Hence, even one upsetting news regarding monsoon affects people involved in this industry and its market. Monsoon is pivotal not only for agriculture but for other businesses as well and one would rather pray that the rains do not elude Goa this monsoon.
