Russia may have pulled back some troops that it has positioned around Ukraine and has repeatedly said it has no plans of launching any military action, but all of Europe – the North Atlantic Treaty Organistion (NATO) member states in particular – and the United States are on alert with the latter stating an attack could happen any day. The threat of a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia is being taken seriously, as there are over a lakh troops deployed close to Ukraine’s borders. A reason why Europe and the United States are wary of a possible attack is due to past history as in 2014, when the Ukraine’s pro-Russia president was deposed, Moscow entered Ukraine’s southern Crimean peninsula, where it backed separatists and the ongoing conflict has claimed over 14,000 lives. As the United States sees it, any move across the border would amount to an invasion.
NATO is offering support and troops are being kept in readiness, though they are not being moved to the Ukraine. In the current circumstances, the West may be only talking of sanctions, though the United States has threatened measures of the kind not seen before, should Ukraine be attacked. In the past days, the United States and Russia have spoken quite a few times, but there is no agreement being reached. Russia has only withdrawn a few troops and said its plan don’t include invading Ukraine. But as Russian troops remain close to the Ukraine borders, the West is not stepping down its alertness. India too has advised its citizens to temporarily leave Ukraine.
Russia and Ukraine have a long shared history. Ukraine is a former Soviet Republic with economic, social and cultural ties with Russia, sharing a border with Russia and European Union countries. Despite its Soviet past, Ukraine has been leaning towards the European Union and NATO, a move that Russia is unhappy about. One of Russia’s main demands is that Ukraine be kept out of NATO, the phrase used in relation to this is that ‘Ukraine never, ever becomes a member of NATO’. The Russian thinking is that if Ukraine joins NATO, Crimea may be recaptured. The reason for this is that NATO considers any attack against a member State as action against all. Another pointer at Russia’s interest in Ukraine is the former’s president having called Russians and Ukranians ‘one nation’.
NATO has been expanding since its inception. After it was founded in 1949 with 12 member nations, the organisation now has 30 and officially recognises three aspiring members, Ukraine being one of these. In Ukraine, there is a deep political divide on this possible alignment. In 2017 its parliament passed a law making integration with NATO a priority, and in the following year passed amendments to the constitution to make its ascension to NATO and EU a central goal and main foreign policy objective. This move indicated just how serious the ruling party in the country was about joining NATO. In 2020 the country’s leadership said that NATO membership would strengthen its security and defence, and the following year, when the Russian build-up began reiterated this.
It was after the disintegration of the Soviet Union that Eastern Europe countries began joining NATO. Russia is opposed to any more expansion of NATO in the east, but the organisation has kept its door open for new members. The situation at the current time is Russia claiming it is withdrawing troops and NATO saying it is yet to see any withdrawal, with the United States stating that an invasion of Ukraine remained a distinct possibility. It appears to be a standoff and only the days ahead will reveal where it leads or whether it ends. The focus of the entire world is now on the Russia-Ukraine border and will remain there till the tensions de-escalate.
