A large section of the Western media in its analysis of the events in Russia last weekend has concluded that Vladimir Putin displayed his weakness by allowing Yevgeny Prigozhin and other Wagner group commanders to depart peacefully for Belarus, and the rank-and-file to join the Russian army or retire to their homes.
The failed Wagner coup on the contrary, shows that Vladimir Putin’s regime remains stubbornly strong. The Russian leader’s show of mercy towards Prigozhin was not a sign of weakness but a shrewd move. Moreover, this is going to prolong the ongoing Ukraine conflict even further.
It is unheard of where a coup is aimed at a particular department of the country’s administration and not to the total administration. There is always a big stake
in a coup where the guilty are heavily punished even with death.
But here within no time everyone was immediately pardoned without even any semblance of enquiry. So, there definitely are some unseen issues favouring the mutineers which are very difficult to ascertain, and can only be guessed!
In his first address to the nation since the rebel pulled back, Putin said he had issued orders to avoid bloodshed, and granted amnesty to the Wagner fighters whose mutiny served up the biggest challenge yet to
his rule.
What was the hurry in pardoning the mutineers by Putin, the man who is unconcerned of human value as observed from his handling of the Russia-Ukraine war?
Prigozhin, one of the most trusted unofficial lieutenants of Putin, was leading an irregular mercenary in the war against Ukraine. He is believed to have 20,000 mercenaries, composed mainly of hard core criminals released from jails, under his command.
He, himself, did have a shady past and from there has been having an astronomical rise in varieties of businesses, becoming a close confidante of Putin till he started the coup on June 23.
Prigozhin is apparently very critical against the Defence Minister of Russia, Sergei Shoigo and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov for various reasons, viz, ‘misleading’ Russia and Putin into the Ukraine war for the sake of obtaining Field Marshal rank and being hero of Russia. Lately he was not getting proper supply and his troops were even shelled/bombed by Russian Army, whole operation was badly led etc.
These reasons seemed to have prompted the Wagner group leader to revolt against defense authority but not against Putin. He claimed that the Defence Ministry had duped Vladimir Putin in last year’s full scale operation into Ukraine. In that, Wagner was advancing towards Moscow in two columns with armoured vehicles.
Prigozhin claimed to be moving with 20,000 fully battle trained dedicated soldiers who resolved to fight to the last to teach the Defence Department a lesson. He claimed to have occupied Rostov-on-Don, enroute to Moscow with little resistance on which he had total control. They claimed to have shot down a number of Russian aircrafts. Distance from the Ukraine border to Rostov-on-Don is about 100 km and to Moscow is 200 km.
But the situation changed drastically. Belarus media announces President Alexander Lukashenko has negotiated Prigozhin’s deal to halt his forces’ advances. Prigozhin and Wagner forces leave Rostov-on-Don.
Prigozhin left for Belarus, leaving Wagner mercenaries high and dry, apparently leaderless. Very soon thereafter total amnesty was declared. The whole episode appeared more comical than actual, and seemed like a drama.
Putin has played a master stroke by letting the coup be solved bloodlessly, thus earning gratitude from the countrymen. Russia never liked shedding their own blood. The Russian 1917 revolt still holds as testimony.
Besides, Wagner had earned a very good name while fighting against Ukraine. Had Putin taken measures to crush them by force he would have further established the proof of his cruelty.
Whatever the experts commented across the world notwithstanding, there is always a nagging feeling about what could be the background of arising of such a shortest coup which erupted and was doused in such a short span of time? This is something that would be best known to Putin and Prigozhin.
Is there some deeper understanding between them? How could the so-called coup be mediated by Lukashenko so fast? Was there a previous understanding? Why has Prigozhin been accommodated in Belarus and mercenaries are being concentrated there, is there a new threat to Ukraine developing from the North?
Answers of all these questions can, perhaps, be answered by future developments. Already, a new high-resolution satellite image reveals hundreds of new tent-like structures at the site of a suspected Wagner camp in Belarus.
The Belarus President said his country, a close and dependent ally of Moscow, could use Wagner’s experience and expertise, and announced that he had offered the fighters an ‘abandoned military unit’ to set up camp. This is an indication that the rebel forces could be launched from Belarus against Ukraine. There is a grand game plan which is brewing. The target is clearly Ukraine.
