While the BJP-MGP alliance in Goa was never really broken, the decision to meet at the highest level in Delhi and decide to firm this up, is actually a reunion of sorts. But the decision wasn’t simple. In fact it still isn’t and is a result of several multiple forces at work. But the bottom line is that at this juncture both need each other.
However, this space has to be watched because while the marriage has been announced, it is the dowry which will decide whether the priest shall be called to recite the holy mantras of matrimony. Needless to add the number of seats each gets along with positions and portfolios will seal this business only arrangement.
However the BJP must realise that this time, the MGP cannot be treated like the junior partner. Even though the Bahujan Samaj, is divided, the MGP may still fancy its chances of drawing them in and an alliance with the BJP will allow both the parties to feed off each other to consolidate the bahujan vote bank. This will be the key to the elections of 2017.
The BJP and the MGP will do business with the Bahujan vote, to take a shot at power because both are looking for crucial post poll benefits. The Goa government will have to generate resources to fuel its massive infrastructure projects, needed to make Goa a massive real estate jungle of resorts, offices, multi-storied buildings and convention centres. This will depend on central cash infusion. The network of roads, highways, bridges etc, will be funded by the most cash rich of central ministries- Road Transport, Highways and shipping. The Minister for all three, Nitin Gadkari, is perhaps the most Goa friendly central minister, with the exception of Manohar Parrikar of course. On one hand, his personal relationship with Mr Parrikar is very strong, and on the other, Mr Gadkari’s equation with the defacto MGP boss Sudin Dhavlikar has grown in strength over the past one year.
The kiss and make up story will not be easy and both parties understand this. In Ponda taluka, the BJP and MGP have drawn swords and are the number one enemy of each other at the workers level. An alliance may lead to rebel candidates from either party deciding to contest against party candidates.
Moreover, the very contentious issue of grants for school teaching English at the primary level will have to be settled. The government’s official stand is that the cabinet decision to give grants to schools teaching in English in the primary level, will be made into an Act in the coming session in January. The Bharatiya Bhasha Suraksha Manch (BBSM) opposing this has MGP elements and the later has openly backed the BBSM position. The BJP has to decide whether to take the huge risk of going back on its decision after calculating the ramifications it will have on a constituency to constituency basis. The BJP’s decision will depend mainly on whether the non-BJP space is occupied by a strong alliance of anti- BJP forces or a fragmented opposition at war with its self.
But ultimately, Lakshmi, the goddess of wealth will find more serious devotees in the BJP and MGP, than Saraswati, the goddess of knowledge will. If the parties can build their own financially secure futures, irrespective of whether Goa is a co- beneficiary, and can work around its contradictions and grass-roots differences, there will be an alliance. Knowing Sudin Dhavlikar though, he will double his efforts at consolidating the MGP and positioning itself to claiming at least 15 seats. By the end of 2016, the flowing factors will seal the deal a) The strength of the opposition b) The chances of rebellion in the party ranks in Ponda taluka and c) The seat sharing arrangement.
If this dowry settlement is agreed upon, the lion and the lotus will agree on a marriage of convenience.
