All eyes are on the Gujarat Assembly elections. The two-phase polling will be held shortly on December 1 and 5 for the 182 Assembly seats. The first phase of voting will be held for 89 seats followed by voting for 93 seats on December 5. Being the ‘home state’ of both the Prime Minister and the Union Home Minister, it is very crucial for the Bhartatiya Janata Party (BJP) to perform well. The ruling BJP is not only facing a 27-year incumbency but also an aggressive Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is just coming off its recent landslide victory in Punjab, and a resurgent Congress that has been slowly closing the gap against the saffron party in terms of seats and vote share.
In the 2017 elections, the BJP managed to win 99 seats – its worst performance since 1990. The Congress won 77 seats, its best showing since 1985, when it won a record 149 seats in the 182-seat Assembly. The Congress, however, suffered a series of defections and subsequently the BJP’s tally rose to 111. The Congress has been reduced to 62. Also, the Congress leadership has not shown their presence for campaigning much during this elections and their major concentration is now for the ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’. At the same time, AAP is going full throttle and is expecting to gain grounds in South Gujarat, especially near the diamond merchants belt of Surat.
The 27-year majority rule of the BJP, from 1995 onwards, has led to growing dissatisfaction in certain sections of society. People believe that inflation, unemployment and basic issues concerning life have remained unresolved even after so many years of BJP rule. The recent collapse of the Morbi bridge which claimed hundreds of lives is also one of the factor which is likely to play in the minds of the voters when they queue up to vote. The youth of Gujarat are also feeling disenchanted by the frequent examination question paper leaks and postponement of government recruitment. Also, the early release of Bilkis Bano case convicts may also impact the voters’ mind. However, despite all these issues along with several others, Home Minister Amit Shah has stated that in this Assembly election, BJP will win a record number of seats. Political pundits believe that with the entry of AAP and weakening of Congress in the State, BJP may garner more votes.
About nine per cent of the Muslim population in the State may look beyond the Congress this time. While Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has been wooing them with full force, Delhi Chief Minister AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal after the victory in Punjab has maintained a stoic silence on communal issues like ‘love jihad’ and the release of Bilkis Bano case convicts.
Gujarat has one of the highest power tariffs in the country. People are looking forward to offers from the AAP and the Congress of giving 300 units free per month as promised by both the parties during campaign. In fact, Prime Minister Modi had to mention is one of his recent campaigns that ‘people should earn from electricity rather than look for free power’. Farmers too are agitating in several parts of the state as they have not been given compensation for crop loss due to excess rains in the last two years.
According to an opinion poll, BJP may win a comfortable majority with 104-119 seats in the 182-member Gujarat assembly, while Congress may win 53-68 seats, AAP may win 0-6 seats and ‘Others’ may win 0-3 seats. All these will be clear when the counting takes place on December 8. It is a fight for prestige as both the top leaders of the BJP, Modi and Shah are virtually camping in their home state to ensure that they do not get embarrassed when the results are declared. Notwithstanding that losing or poor performance of BJP in Gujarat will also change the entire political narrative for the 2024 General elections.
