The results of the Assembly elections, especially Tripura, are prima facie, absolutely tectonic. In Nagaland, the BJP combining with the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) looks set to edge out the Naga Peoples Front (NPF) which got a mere 2 seats less than the NDPP.
In Meghalaya, the BJP has got just 2 seats and the Congress 21. And yet, in a scenario which brings back memories of what happened in Goa exactly a year ago, a 2-member BJP is set to prop up a 19 member National People’s party.
In Tripura, the BJP very strategically allied with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) to get 43 seats, in a landslide majority, signaling the end of close to a three-decade red rule.
These are important signposts. But to read them as a BJP takeover of the North East would be missing the wood for the trees. Barring Tripura there were no clear pre-poll alliances in Nagaland and Meghalaya. In Nagaland, the BJP actually had its feet in both the boats of the regional outfits and we shall wait for the story to end only when the swearing in takes place. In Meghalaya, the BJP doesn’t mind a toehold to get more than a foothold and then probably the whole door.
The significance in the North East results applies to Goa. In each of the three states, the regional outfits, which are also those of indigenous people, have won in a manner hitherto unheard of. While regional groups always existed, it is the national parties, mainly the Congress, which have dominated the political landscape. But in the past two years, we have noticed a ground shift in North East politics which has been bathed with the shower of regionalism. More specifically, the North East is going through a significant phase in their journey where they have either rejected nationalist parties or are willing to accept them, only as combination with indigenous forces. There is a realisation that local needs, desires and dreams can be understood, and based on that understanding, fulfilled only by local parties and interests. And interestingly many of the leaders of the regional outfits in the North East, were in national parties and decided to break away and form regional outfits, realising that there was change in the goalposts as far as people’s support was concerned.
What the BJP has strategically done here is realised this trend before the Congress and stepped in as a guarantor by backing a regional outfit. By doing that, it fulfills the twin purpose of forming governments in states where it would have been virtually impossible to do so and the same time remind the state of the importance of having the support of the Centre to expedite development works.
All this is not really far removed from the situation in Goa where the BJP and the Goa Forward combine with a willing MGP, literally toppled the Congress from a winning position. Even a year from then, it is a vital takeaway that future politics in Goa isn’t envisaged anymore along the lines of the Congress and the BJP. Unlike then, when regional outfits used to fill in the blanks, what happens now is that a political combination starts with a regional party.
Regional politics is currently placed at the mainstream of Indian politics and all you need to do is look at political combination across a majority of the states. Goan politics therefore has to be seen through the prism of regional politics, and this is something that smart national parties understand.
