The election fair, which has been going on for the last two and a half months under the name ‘celebration of democracy’, will conclude today, June 4. Who will form the government will be clear approximately by noon. The election was held in seven phases from April 19 to June 1. Many political analysts have objected to holding such a long-running election in the summer. Still, nearly 55 to 60 percent of Indian voters participated in this democratic process despite the scorching heat. The remaining 40 percent are not interested in deciding who should govern their country. There can be many reasons for this.
Voting is not compulsory in India. But when a country’s economy is going to be number three in the world, and if only 55-60 percent of the people decide who should be given the administration of such a large democratic nation in the world, it is definitely a matter of concern.
After the final round of voting on June 1, several exit poll agencies pulled out their election predictions and released them. Almost all the exit polls have claimed that the NDA will come to power in the country once again. And while making this claim, they have predicted that about 350 to 370, some of them have given around 400 seats to NDA. But betting markets are not ready to give a majority to NDA. In short, all these exit polls have claimed that Narendra Modi will become the Prime Minister for the third time. Basically, if all the exit polls are saying that the NDA will get more than 370 seats and the BJP will have made a significant entry in the southern states, it means that there was no anti-BJP or anti-Modi wave in the country. If so, then on which issues did people vote? This question certainly arises.
In urban and semi-urban areas, it can be said that there was a favourable environment for BJP or NDA. But in the rural areas, weren’t the people suffering from the problems of unemployment, inflation and corruption? Didn’t the farmers in the rural areas have issues such as guaranteed prices for agricultural products, market issues, and water issues? Despite facing all these problems and being displeased with the ruling MPs, MLAs, did such voters still vote for Narendra Modi?
Many such questions arise after looking at exit poll predictions. But exit poll agencies do not have answers to these questions. There are many questions on the reliability of exit polls, their survey method, etc. How many Lok Sabha constituencies did the exit poll agencies visit? How many Assembly constituencies did they choose? How many of the respondents had voted? How many women were respondents and how many were men? Voters from which caste were contacted? What were the modes of outreach to collect this data? That is, by calling them over the phone, asking questions on the internet, or by going to the actual polling station? What questions were asked of them? Were they categorised? What business were they in? What was their age group? And most importantly what was the sample size?
Exit poll agencies do not have the answers to these questions. Nor does any exit poll agency make such data public. Therefore, it would not be wrong to say that the exit polls were just a fluke. How many months would it take to conduct an exit poll scientifically in a country with a population of 140 crores? Is that even possible? Well, did all the voters who were asked the questions give the correct answers? Therefore, even if the classical method is used, it is like shooting an arrow in the air. Whoever comes close to the actual figures, can claim that they have got about 95 percent of predictions right. In fact, along with the exit polls, various betting markets have predicted many shocking forecasts.
Another thing to be noted is that the speculations of the betting market came before the exit polls. And most of these estimates are not willing to put the NDA above 270. Subsequent exit polls have tried to influence the speculation by giving as many as 379 seats to the NDA. Speculation markets have their method of forecasting, many times these speculation markets have been proven to be more accurate than the exit poll agencies.
A well-known betting market named ‘Phalodi’ has predicted that BJP’s seats in Uttar Pradesh will be less than that of 2019. The market says that the NDA will get 253 seats. Not only Phalodi, but out of the 9 major betting markets, two have predicted that the NDA will come to power with large numbers. Meanwhile, Palanpur, Karnal, Belgaum, Kolkata, Vijayawada and Ahmedabad markets have predicted that NDA will get 245 to 265 seats. Indore Bullion and Surat Maghobi, however, have predicted the NDA to go as high as 285 only. Now, whose predictions are correct, the exit poll agencies or speculators or some other political situation will arise, would be clear by the end of the day.
