In poll mode, BJP has an uphill climb

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the stakes are very high for the upcoming Assembly elections which are to be held early next year in five States – Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur.

Elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat will be held in late 2022. Except Punjab, the BJP is in power in all these States and it has decided to contest all the 117 seats in Punjab early next year.

Of these five States, for the BJP its major stakes are in Uttar Pradesh and if they falter in the State, it will directly reflect on 2024 General Elections. It will also give an opportunity to all the opposition parties to lash out on the Modi-led BJP government at the Centre. The by-poll results on November 3 for the three Lok Sabha and 29 Assembly seats across 13 States and a Union Territory is also weighing on the minds of the party leadership. The BJP, however, did well in the northeast, winning all nine seats, and Madhya Pradesh.

The Congress winning the Lok Sabha bypoll and three Assembly seats in Himachal Pradesh, a State which is governed by the BJP has caused major concern in the party ranks. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress continued its winning streak, sweeping the by-polls in all four seats of Bengal. In three seats, the BJP candidates lost their deposit. The recent spurt in prices of various commodities across the country and numerous protests over it by the opposition parties have also unruffled the feathers of the BJP political top brass.

The BJP national executive meeting held on November 7 assumes extra significance as it comes against the backdrop of the results to 29 Assembly and three Lok Sabha bypolls spread across 13 States, in which the party’s performance has been mixed. While it did well in Assam and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP lost all three Assembly and one Lok Sabha seat in Himachal Pradesh and was further decimated by the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.

This National executive meeting was held for the first time following the COVID-19 outbreak and it took place in a ‘hybrid’ model with some attendees present physically at the Delhi venue, while others taking part virtually. Goa BJP leaders attended the meet virtually as did party’s senior ideologues like LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi. About 124 national executive members of the BJP, which included Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and party president JP Nadda attended the meet.

Prime Minister Modi, in his speech, did mention on Sunday that service is the highest form of worship. A new culture of service has been demonstrated by the ‘karyakartas’ (workers) of the BJP. Sewa hi Sangathan (service is organisation) has served the nation during tough times and the clear message was that the workers should start working on the ground and not just rely on senior party leaders’ image.

Considering Uttar Pradesh as one of the most crucial State Assembly elections for the BJP early next year, BJP is pulling out all its resources by setting up a multi-layered organisational structure comprising two central teams and one State team to oversee foolproof monitoring and coordination of poll-related programmes in the days to come. Party leaders have been mandated by the Central BJP leaders to make various groups of those associated directly with the party and also those who can help it during the campaign. Senior leaders have been asked to hold meetings with each of these groups.

In Goa, political parties like Trinamool Congress and Aam Aadmi Party have shown keen interests in the State’s electoral politics and will be contesting the upcoming Assembly elections. The Goa Chief Minister Dr Pramod Sawant has called these parties as ‘Political Tourists’. The State BJP president, Sadanand Tanavde, who attended the BJP National Executive meet on Sunday, has assured the BJP Central leadership that the party will be able to retain power in Goa. However, BJP in Goa too is looking for ‘like-minded’ parties for an alliance, which clearly indicates that the ruling BJP is also not very confident.

In the last Assembly elections when late Manohar Parrikar was leading the party in Goa the BJP managed a second position in the count, with Congress almost on the verge of breaching the halfway mark. Post poll alliance did save the BJP and it could form the government by outsmarting Congress at the very last moment. During this election BJP is calling for a pre-poll alliance with parties like MGP and this is a clear indication that the State BJP wants to secure its future for 2022 Assembly elections.

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