Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified and barbaric invasion of Ukraine is not only a manifestation of a huge security danger that has shattered peace in Europe, as well as the world, it also shows the ill effect of too much dependency on other country on food, industrial produce and defence umbrella. It is dangerous to assume that the war on Ukraine is a limited conflict: it has made dent in scenario of food and industrial supply chain and military alliances with dependability on various countries with military becoming less certain. With gradual sliding on the efficacy of the world defence bodies, dependability on these alliances is becoming less and less. Any small trouble anywhere would have world-wide effect.
The Russia-Ukraine war is one of the most unfortunate one in the history of the wars. It surpasses all war the craziness including that of Hitler.
Thousands of people have since been killed, towns and cities such as Mariupol, Donbas – split by Donetsk and Lohansk, destroyed and lie in ruins, millions have been killed and 13 million people have been displaced. But the questions remain: what was it all for, what will be the consequences, what change will it bring in world geopolitics, their defence policies, how will it end and will it change in worlds’ nuclear policy?
All world efforts comprising security and confidence-building measures, or institutional arrangements designed to preserve peace, suddenly look very fragile when faced with blunt force. The suffering of Ukraine presents a moral challenge to Europe and the world. Human rights and the UN Charter have been trampled upon and our values mocked. This is a war against the “collective west too”. Putin and his aides have chosen to abandon the rational caution exercised by the majority of his Soviet predecessors and all world leaders. Entire world power could not, so far, stem the devastating security and economic change that are setting in.
Small countries, such as Moldova and Georgia, Moscow’s formal allies such as Kazakhstan, may fear becoming Putin’s next target. The Kremlin has not made any attempt to assuage these fears, but has instead amplified them via direct menaces, propaganda and intimidation levers.
Before start of Russian invasion into Ukraine the world generally believed in the deterrence value of nuclear weapons and on regional defence alliances, basically based on political alliances led by powerful countries which would restrict the individual arms race.
This war has proved that wrong. There seems less likelihood in future on dependability on non-proliferation treaty or grand alliances. Only way to save one is to acquire nuclear weapon which may create race amongst all the countries to acquire that and make the earth sit on a most dangerous volcano ever conceived.
It again proves, with the stalling of Russian advance, that it is nearly impossible to win a people’s war as we experienced over fifty years ago in Vietnam or Afganistan or Bangladesh etc. The tremendous increase in lethality of the weapons, available to both the attacker and defender, could not change the ground reality. Besides, magnitude of destruction that would be caused in today’s war would be much more devastative than the gain made, therefore, does not make it worthwhile. Even if Ukraine falls Russia will get a destroyed country.
Manner of ground fighting is changing. War is going to be fought more from distance to destroy the enemy resources than fighting close quarter. Ground operations will be much more costly in terms of man and material. Long range artillery, drones, aircrafts will be more on use.
World will no longer be a place to live peacefully. Besides, we are fast destroying the resources of the earth, which take millions years to form, in a couple of minutes. We tend to forget that we are depleting our natural resources beyond recouping capability.
The point remains that there is no guarantee that such fight will remain localised. The world has become very aggressive in order to establish individual hegemony. Bigger the country bigger is the stake. If we look around such possibility around our own border is not unanticipated.
India must take the lesson from Ukraine war, though the geopolitical situation is not same but we may get involved in such kind of situation and we need to be ready for that.
India needs to have long term political direction, economic and industrial development and strong defence forces.
This war has shown the ugliest face of human negativity. It is impossible to even imagine that a man can be so ruthless of not having any compunction in killing his fellow beings. Though we have such past history but it has surpassed all of them. So let us be ready.
