In the run-up to the polls, as candidates are being selected, the rumblings in the existing alliances are growing louder, getting complicated and could even shake up the government in the State.
Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) has thrown down the gauntlet to the Bharatiya Janata Party – leave Shiroda for us and we will keep out of the other three by-elections, but contest Shiroda and the lion will roar in all four constituencies going for by-elections. The news is not good for the BJP, but there is more that the party has to bear with. Its other partner Goa Forward Party is on the verge of losing a vice president in Atanasio Monserrate who said he will quit the regional party and contest the by-election that is due in Panjim following the vacancy created by the death of former chief minister Manohar Parrikar. Monserrate has said he will contest as an Independent. That’s more news that will not be pleasing to the BJP, that has just about managed to hold on to power, after its allies put up various demands. The possibility of a tough fight in Panjim, the constituency that was held by Manohar Parrikar for 25 years, could be unnerving for the party. This is one constituency that BJP would hate to lose.
While that’s one constituency, the threat to the government, however, comes from the MGP that has closed ranks for the time being and expelled its general secretary Lavoo Mamledar for anti-party activities. It is displaying unity at the moment, that, however, does not rule out the possibility of a split in the party in the coming days. MGP MLA Deepak Pauskar has said that the expelled office bearer was only trying to help them, an indication that there is a soft corner for the former MLA. The possibility of a split within the party still exists and any differences in the regional party could affect the coalition, as the BJP-led government currently depends on the MGP support to make up the numbers. The week ahead will tell whether MGP remains intact or breaks up.
Splits and MLAs leaving the party is not new to the MGP as it has seen a number of its party men breaking ties with it after winning an election to join the party in power. The party has actually been a kind of nursery for many aspiring politicians who have started their innings in the party before moving to the national parties. MGP has also been the recourse of many politicians who have been denied tickets by their parties, and have then scurried over to the regional party to contest on the lion symbol and make their entry into the political field.
Against this background, MGP will be playing quite an important role in this election – especially in the by-polls. The party’s influence may not extend to the Lok Sabha polls, but it can damage the BJP enough in the local Assembly by-elections by creating hurdles for its victory. Right now the field is wide open and it could either turn murkier or it could clear up, but the damage done to the coalition will not be easily mended. For months the MGP has been showing signs of a rebellion, but hasn’t acted on its threats. Now, if it splits, the party may have no choice but to break away from the coalition.
