While it is early days yet, the last weekend saw a bit of a discussion centred around who will be the BJP’s Chief Ministerial candidate in the run up to the 2017 elections. Unlike in 2012, when it was as sure as the next day’s sunrise that it was Manohar Parrikar’s election and the party was working for his coronation, 2017 is all about only managing to form the government.
And while the incumbent Chief Minister Mr Parsekar, who completes two years at the helm, after Parrikar’s sudden leapfrog to the Centre, will be the man responsible for steering the ship, the final word on whether he will be Captain, when the crew is assembled post the elections, or not, is not yet out. The reasons, as we have mentioned are not far to seek. 2017 will not be Parrikar’s election that 2012 was. Then the massive vote away from the Congress had only one taker, the BJP.
Therefore the chances of a clear majority with an obvious Chief Minister at the helm, was a reality which starred at all in the face except the Congress. This time, the BJP which faces the same vote shift away from it, is better prepared and developing its strategy around new realities. In 2012, the Congress was in denial. In 2016-17, the BJP isn’t. The BJP has shifted its entire strategy for the next elections and converted it into an electoral science, the science of numbers and post poll support.
Two surveys have shown the extent to which seats will slump. If they can pick themselves up from where they are now, they can restrict the loss to about five to six seats. If they cannot, it might slip to 9. Picking themselves up from this situation includes the ability to create more players in as many constituencies as they can in the non-BJP areas. The science involves figuring the votes needed to win in a two-cornered, three-cornered or multi-cornered fight. At the same time, in North Goa constituencies and those in the Ponda and Sanguem talukas, the BJP needs to tabulate the votes it needs, to counter the threat of the political arm of the BBSM, the Goa Suraksha Manch.
In an election where science and mathematics will play a bigger role than policy and performance, the BJP is very closely calculating whether its professor Chief Minister will be the best man in its political classroom – the Assembly, as the leader of the House. And it will all boil down to how many seats the BJP gets. Party insiders point out that a robust miraculous performance where the BJP gets very close to a majority will strengthen Parsekar’s chances. But with that possibility shrinking, the choice will be made taking a lot of factors into account. And while many say that call will be made after the elections, the possibility of making that choice internally, pre-poll is not ruled out.
When Manohar Parrikar says that Mr Parsekar has the responsibility of leading the BJP to victory, he is not exactly saying he will be the next CM if BJP forms the government but stating that he is in the obvious shortlist of choices. And when Parsekar, during the press conference last weekend, said “Vinaybab”, (state president VinayTendulkar) has the answers, Mr Parrikar jumped to reiterate that it is Amit Shah who will decide. Well Amit Shah had no role to play in 2012 because the choice was obvious.
This statement makes it amply clear that the choice of the next CM candidate for the BJP is far from obvious.
