The Presidential polls, 2017, seem to be a fierce battle between the government and the opposition in recent times. In usual cases, it is never a stiff competition, but this time it is a matter of prestige for the BJP-led NDA government and the Opposition. While the government is displaying its confidence, the opposition looks like it’s all glued up and united. Since, neither the government, nor the opposition has the numbers, Naveen Patnaik’s BJD and the “troubled” AIADMK will play a crucial deciding factor.
And who is the opposition’s candidate? It is too early to get an answer to this vital question. However, there are speculations and the names that are doing the rounds include NCP leader Sharad Pawar, JDU’s Sharad Yadav, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and ex-Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar. Manmohan stands tall amidst all of them as he will be an automatic choice for Nitish Kumar, the Left, Mayawati, Mamata and Akhilesh Kumar. He also has a good standing with the BJD and AIADMK. Sonia Gandhi will have to play a binding force and lead the opposition unity from the front.
Recently, at the Opposition Unity Summit held in memory of Madhu Limaye, Yechury said, “The Presidential poll is the first test of Opposition unity against BJP’s power and we must field a candidate by consensus.”
The NDA government has not yet spilled the beans on the name(s) of candidate(s). Fresh from win-after-win in Assembly elections, the government is keeping its cards close to its chest. The mathematics of Prez poll: The President is elected by an electoral collegium which consists of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs and elected members of the State Legislative Assemblies. The total number of voting MLAs is 4,114. The total number of voting MPs in the LS and RS is 776. The calculation of votes is done following a special formula that was worked out under the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Election Rules, 1974. As per the formula, each MP’s vote is valued at 708 while an MLA’s vote is valued according to the population of his State and State Assembly strength. For example, the value of the vote of an MLA from say UP is 208 while that of an MLA from Sikkim will be just 7.
How is the Government placed? Parties like AIADMK, BJD, TRS, YSRCP, AAP (in Punjab and Delhi) and INLD — cumulatively hold 13 per cent vote-share in the Presidential Electoral College and can make the contest really interesting. These parties can pitch the ball in any block hole depending on national/state-level political equations spelt out to them.
On paper, the contest between the government and the opposition could also become a photo-finish if the Congress-led opposition can secure the support of these parties. The opposition’s count of 35.47 per cent vote combine added to the 13.06 per cent vote share of these parties will give them a total of 48.53 per cent; while the BJP-led NDA’s count is pegged at 48.64 per cent. The NDA doesn’t need to wrack its brains much and requires the support of just one party — or two smaller ones to cross the majority figure. With the BJP sitting pretty comfortable in Delhi and with its winning spree continuing, it (NDA) has better political “strength” to muster that magic figure. However, it has also got to keep its own flock together and must be wary of the Shiv Sena’s last-minute whims and fancies. The otherwise, predictable Presidential election which is/was more or less predictable reminds one of 1969 when VV Giri had a real fight with Dr Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy. This was the only time (till date) when no candidate got the needed majority numbers (at least) in the first count. Several candidates were cast out till Giri and Reddy remained in the fray. Varahagiri Venkata Giri with 420,077 votes won in a runoff election over his rival Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy who got 405,427 votes. Ultimately, it was Victory for VV Giri, who made it to the top post.
