There is definitely a perceptible change in the climate pattern in the State. Goa is currently experiencing vast changes in its monsoon. With continuous rain in first month-and-a-half of the monsoon, leading to the rainfall received being 15 per cent above average by July 15, Goa by August 22 was staring at 17 per cent deficit. When the average normal by August 22 is 100 inches, the rainfall received this year was 85.66 inches. The State is way short of the average. The national monsoon average is also showing a deficit of 7 per cent. Though it is still early and there is no data to positively attribute this swing to climate change, it certainly calls for undertaking a study that will give a result to the pattern.
Annually there are reports that the preceding year has been the hottest in a century, an indication of the rise in temperatures across the globe, and that climate change is a reality. Last year, 2017, has been the third warmest year on record, behind 2016 which was the warmest and 2015 which was the second warmest.
So in reality, 2017 was slightly cooler than the previous two years, but this was not by much as it still holds the record for the third warmest year. By 2017, the Earth had already warmed by over one degree Celsius since 1880, when records began to be collected, but the rise in temperatures has been faster in recent years. Here we are looking at the global average and the change, but micro studies of temperature changes and climate fluctuations could give a better idea of how the earth’s weather patterns are changing.
There’s no denying it, climate change is making itself felt in various manners and it is no longer a theory that can be disputed but a reality that has to be dealt with.
It is being manifested not just by warmer temperatures, but also by changing rainfall patterns, and so we need to look at the current situation in Goa more closely and scientifically. The good news is that climate change can be slowed down or even reversed, because it is manmade and not a natural occurrence.
Scientists have concluded that the changes are too rapid to fit in the geologic time scale where changes occurred over centuries, and the explanation is the human factor, more pertinently the emission of greenhouse gases.
Returning to the local swing in the rainfall pattern – from a 15 per cent surplus to a 17 per cent deficit – which could have repercussions on the agricultural produce and also on the water table, are there measures being thought of to ensure water storage?
There are now just about 36 days before the monsoon official ends, or the date by which the Meteorological Department stops taking its monsoon rainfall tally. That leaves a big answered question of whether Goa will manage to reach the 100 inch rainfall mark by September 30 or will it fall short.
If the sporadic showers of the past few days continue over the next few weeks, there is little hope that Goa can make it to the 100 inch rainfall mark.
This wouldn’t have appeared possible during the early weeks of the monsoon that let to flooded roads across the State and this is happening within weeks of some persons taking out a kayak on a road inundated due to the heavy showers.
The trend is worrying and the State has to seriously look at the long term effects of its policies on the environment.
