An election has happened next door in Maharashtra. And by the time the complete results are out late Sunday night, the beginning of the next week would have given a direction to the course of Indian politics beyond the seat count of the four main parties.
The results from Maharashtra will look at some fundamentals and compare them with the new fundamentals. And the new fundamentals that will be asked are a) Is India getting ready for a one party rule by moving away from coalition politics, the mantra for well over a decade? b) What is the future of forces who dominated ruling coalitions, and are now getting out of the picture? c) Will old allies become even stronger new political enemies?
While this will play out in Maharashtra, where the future of a party like Shiv Sena, will be at stake if the BJP gets a clear majority, the ramifications of the kind of politics the Maharahstra polls will set off in Goa cannot be ignored. The relationship between the MGP and the BJP needs more improvement than it ever has, now. The MGP has realised that its role as a coalition partner cannot be at the cost of morphing its identity with that of the BJP; and is more than willing to make its own space. The MGP and the BJP find themselves at loggerheads on two key issues in Ponda, the MGP’s base and battle ground. The face off over the imposition of hiked Sopo tax rates between the market vendors opposing the hike and the BJP controlled Ponda Municipal Council and an even larger confrontation over the beautification of the historic Kranti Maidan, where the MGP’s effective head Sudin Dhavlikar, also the PWD minister is going full steam ahead with the beautification of a ground which is a symbol of the freedom movement.
There may well be – albeit a totally indirect fallout of the Maharashtra elections on certain aspects of the BJP MGP relationship. The RSS is clearly espousing the single party rule, by doing away with coalitions, after securing brute electoral victories. In fact there are many within the BJP who feel that if the assembly elections were held in Goa now, instead of in 2012, the BJP MGP coalition wouldn’t have happened. However, there is a caveat to this argument. Neither the BJP nor the MGP in Goa want to rock the boat but try and consolidate positions in areas where both have a presence. Now this comes with complications and conflicts and that is exactly what is happening in Ponda now. Notwithstanding what the national mood or direction will be, even Manohar Parrikar wouldn’t want to create another front in Ponda and talukas like Quepem and Dharbandora. He has taken a great political risk of taking the Mopa battle to South Goa by literally telling them that he will take all calls and decisions and there was no going back on the airport. He is doing it in the name of the development agenda, but with the biggest symbol of development – the Regional Plan – in the backburner, this argument won’t sell. Therefore with a political setback in Salcete an absolute certainly, it wouldn’t at all be prudent on the part of the BJP to alienate the MGP at this stage.
The Chief Minister’s planned visit to Ponda over the weekend, is an indication that he doesn’t want the issue to get out of hand. For the BJP and the Chief Minister, the biggest damage the MGP can do to it, is if it becomes the B party for disgruntled BJP men. A politician like Mr Parrikar will realise the ramifications of this, when he sees this in the context of a shrinking BJP base in Salcete, which was the architect of the Congress downfall and the BJP’s rise in 2012.
Therefore the MGP-BJP space needs to be watched really carefully. The irony is that the BJP may well be in a position to say to itself that nothing will matter now, on Sunday night, but in Goa, Parrikar may need the MGP more and more as his rickety marriage with the people of Salcete is heading for an imminent closure.
