Since the last 50 years, the erstwhile USSR (Soviet Union) or Russia has been India’s biggest ally. It played a major role in strengthening India’s security apparatus. The USSR before 1991 and Russia now, has been our biggest arms supplier.
But the security and economic scenario, world over, has seen a sea change since February 24, 2022 when Russia launched his attack on Ukraine in order to capture it and expand its territory towards Eastern Europe trying to recreate de-facto USSR and allegedly trying to protect it against the perceived hegemony of USA and NATO.
This one act by Russia has brought in huge changes in the world defence and security scenario. This act of Russia is creating panic amongst the small and non-nuclear countries trying for entry into various security and economic groupings viz NATO, European Union on one side and also Russian or Eastern Block, depending on the political lineage and economic consideration for their self-protection on the other side.
Besides, various regional alliances are growing up and becoming more active in their own region for economic and security purposes. Russia also is feeling the heat of the security problem. Its adventure with Ukraine hasn’t gone as expected.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a deep human, economic and business impact on the world as well as on its own economy. Russia has been the biggest exporter of natural gas especially to Europe and USA.
With the breaking-in of Russia-Ukraine war, US, UK and various other countries imposed energy sanctions on Russia. Consequently, there has been a definite fall in Russian GDP since the war broke out. Russia’s economy may continue to shrink in 2023. Its GDP is forecast to decline by 2.5% in the worst-case scenario as per Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) or by 0.2% according to the World Bank.
The IMF expects growth in 2023 (0.7%). Russia needs a new market and business opening. Export is going to go down, therefore, dwindling the foreign reserve further. Russia has to find a way out.
Since Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine, Moscow has been working hard to seek new strategic partners or to deepen existing relations. Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russia, was in China for a high-profile bilateral meeting that has raised eyebrows in the West.
Beijing and Moscow once said their friendship has no limits, amid increasing animosity between the two powers and the West. Many countries in Africa, South America and other Asian countries are sitting on the fence. But there is a definite leaning of Russia towards China and new friend Pakistan. After the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, the economic sanctions imposed by the West, led by the US, has made Russia desperate.
It started selling India crude oil at discounted rates. India was blamed for fueling the Ukraine war by doing so, but India fought back all accusations bravely, to stand by its all-weather friend.
But recently, we have seen the tides changing their course. Pakistan has apparently purchased crude oil from Russia, which the former claims at discounted rates, but the latter denies it. Now, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that his country is looking forward to deepening ties with Pakistan.
This is despite the fact that Pakistan stood with the USA against the then Soviet Union during Afghanistan war in the late 1980s. Even during the Ukraine conflict, it has been reported that Pakistan has supplied arms and ammunition to Ukraine.
This growing bonhomie between India’s traditional ally Russia, with its arch rivals China and Pakistan, is a worrying situation. Under these circumstances we now need to appreciate if these three powers, ie, Russia, China and Pakistan come closer, what would be its significance in relation to India’s own security issue.
Geographically, India is physically surrounded by land in the west and north by Pakistan and China. China has great capability to choke India’s eastern region by entering through Myanmar.
What is needed for India to strengthen the defence forces with not only modern weapon systems but also infrastructure to counter the three dimensional threat.
Both Russia and China are trade beneficiaries and Pakistan, in her present condition, may have no other option but to have, in the long run, an amicable security and economic cooperation to survive as a nation.
Russia may not directly attack India, but if it starts selling its weapon systems to Pakistan for money, Pak will certainly use it against India.
Prime Minister Modi’s state visit to the US is the grand testimony to India’s rising leadership on the world economy and security segment. This visit is going to open a vast market in defence and other associated manufacturing segments, thus generating a huge scope of employment and other ancillary activities.
Both China and Pakistan continue to be belligerent towards India and right now looking at the changing geopolitical dynamics, India can’t afford to dilute its ties with Russia immediately, despite growing ties with the USA.
India has to walk the tightrope by balancing its relations with both the USA and Russia. While improving relations with the US will open more trading with US and Europe, maintaining good ties with Russia will ensure that the hands of India’s traditional foes aren’t strengthened as yet.
