Among these, for BJP the win in Uttar Pradesh is critical. Even though BJP in Uttar Pradesh got 255 seats in the 403-seat Assembly and is down by 57 seats since the 2017 State elections, it was extremely important for the party to retain their government in the largest populated State of the county before the 2024 general elections.
With 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, the State is critical for the party in terms of laying the groundwork and generating the momentum for its campaign to ensure a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “The route to Delhi is via Lucknow. It’s very important for the BJP to be in power in Uttar Pradesh to return to power in 2024,” Union Home Minister and the BJP’s senior leader and strategist Amit Shah had said during the campaigns. In fact, in the last three decades of Uttar Pradesh politics, it was the first win for an incumbent party, and ensures that chief minister Yogi Adityanath, a known strong hardliner in views, could be the first in the State’s history to remain in power for a second consecutive term. It secures Yogi’s stature as one of the most powerful figures in the BJP and also “entitles him to be a potential successor to the prime minister later,” believe many political observers.
For the Indian National Congress which at one point of time used to govern Uttar Pradesh, this election was a complete disaster. The party could only manage two seats in 403 Assembly elections indicating that something went horribly wrong even when their leaders like Priyanka Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi addressed more rallies than the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. Political observers are already saying that the Assembly results of 2022 have been portrayed as a final nail in the coffin for India’s once most formidable Congress party and, the country’s oldest political party and main national opposition for the BJP. On the day of the result it became evident that Congress had lost seats in Goa and Manipur and failed to win back its former stronghold of Punjab, one of the few States where it had still held power. In fact Aam Aadmi Party swept Punjab comfortably making more difficult for Congress resurgence.
Political analysts also believe that the victory of BJP in States like Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand (where the Chief Minister lost the election) can be seen as a stamp of approval for PM Modi’s pro-poor policies and the last-mile delivery of schemes. The people, who most needed help during the peak of COVID-19, got it. One (Indian) historical constant is that over the years, the rich and poor alike consume about 10 kg of rice and wheat (food grains) per capita per month. For several decades, the stated purpose of the public distribution system (PDS) which has been active since the late 1970s in one form or another has been to supply 5 kilogrammes of food grains. However, this was just theoretical. Even former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s government in 1985 had assessed that only about 19 per cent of the money meant for the poor actually reached them. Several studies confirmed the accuracy of that assessment. However, this time around it was different as technology was brought in. One Nation One Card was the new policy, and targeting was helped via the Aadhaar card.
Not wasting any time after the Assembly elections results, the emboldened Prime Minister headed to his home state Gujarat for a two-day visit and virtually blowing the ‘conch’ for the Gujarat polls which will take place this December. It is important for BJP to also win the Prime Minister home State elections before 2024 general elections. Not to forget that the Aam Aadmi Party has already made inroads in the Gujarat Municipal elections in Surat recently while Congress is assessing its eroding base.
