The party is now the single largest in the Assembly, and the government with the support of allies – Goa Forward Party and Independents – has a strength of 23, that gives it much breathing space. Given that the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party is yet to withdraw its support to the government, the strength on paper is 24, but this one MLA could so easily shift to the other side of the well of the House, that at the present time even the CM is not counting on the support of Goa’s oldest regional party.
For Sawant, the months ahead are going to be crucial. He took charge of the State during the period when the election code of conduct was in place. Though he has been at the helm of affairs for over two months, the code has restricted government action almost totally, and Goa has not seen the new chief minister in action. His test starts now from the moment the code is lifted. When saying that the government is ‘in an excellent position for the next three years’, he can claim a stable government, but what Goa is looking forward to is performance. The past year had seen even ministers themselves claiming that governance had been at a standstill. It will be Sawant’s task to jolt the administration into life and provide the governance that has been missing.
While stability is the key, there has to be also trust among the allies. A day after the results, Sawant listed the support of the MLAs he has, and did not mention the MGP. Ironically, BJP and MGP were viewed as natural allies, their policies and ideologies more in common than that of the other allies. The two parties had come together in 1994 in a pre-poll alliance that saw BJP make its entry into the State Legislature, and had gone on to form governments in alliance until the relationship soured a couple of months ago, and BJP managed to split the MGP. The relationship is yet to be mended, and the chief minister has publicly stated that the regional party must take a decision on its support to the government. With one MLA, the importance of the MGP diminishes considerably, and it may not even be required in government.
And, there are also reservations within the BJP as there are those who perceive that the allies did not back the BJP candidates in the recent elections. A senior BJP leader has singled out Independent MLA Govind Gaude as the only one of the allies who actually worked for the BJP candidates in the by-elections and Lok Sabha polls. The ‘hurt’ in the BJP is that the allies had assured the late Manohar Parrikar that the government would not be rocked, yet, as the BJP leader said, there were those hoping that the recent election results could help destabilise the government. The opposite happened when the votes were counted, but then, will BJP let itself forget this and continue with the government?
The pressures of a coalition government will always be the most difficult to deal with and Sawant who has had no prior experience in government will feel it in the weeks ahead. As long as the election code was in force, there was little that the coalition partners would demand from the chief minister. That is going to change rapidly. The first major test will be the monsoon session of the Assembly which is usually held in July-August. That is when Goa will see just how stable is the Pramod Sawant government.
