There are undercurrents in the Mandovi, which are seldom felt because no one swims the Mandovi in these parts anymore. Political undercurrents too have a strange way of playing out in Panjim, which lies on its banks. The currents are understood, sometimes felt but never quite kept in mind when political decisions are made.
Manohar Parrikar and Babush Monseratte have had one of Goa’s longest standing love-hate romances of epic proportions. Both have worked with each other and went out of office because of each other. After doing business with him, Parrikar dropped him, taking the high moral ground that he would rather lose his government than have ‘corruption’ fester in his cabinet.
But neither Parrikar not Monserrate have learnt to say never. In myriad ways and in subtle combinations, they continue to have an equation of mutual benefit, which accrue in the medium and long run.
Which is why the discerning voter of Panjim can never conclude till the new council is actually formed, much after elections are declared, the contours of the next CCP.
Behind the public posturing lies the fact that the CCP polls will see a three-cornered contest and not a straight fight, which straightway puts the BJP at an advantage.
Some have been critical of the Congress jumping into the fray to be a spoiler for Babush Monseratte, but was the Congress left with any choice? It has expelled Monserrate from the party for his blatant anti- party work, including declaring that he would contest the Panjim by-poll as an independent. At that point of time he controversially said “I do not want a chaprasi to win from the BJP (sarcastically commenting on Manohar Parrikar’s then PA Siddharth Kunkoliencar), announcing that both he and his wife Jennifer would quit their assembly seats and the party. Finally, after upping the ante, he went completely cold. He did not work for the Congress, but there is a likelihood of him having transferred his votes towards the BJP on thre Panjim by-polls after Mr Parrikar’s resignation. What really is the guarantee that the same will not be repeated?
The BJP in Panjim can well be expanded to Babush, Jennifer and Parrikar. Thus the CCP elections look like a fixed match. The role of the Congress, it may be warned, has not unfolded completely. If the Congress and Monserrate’s panel eat into each-others votes, the BJP backed panel is through. At the same time one cannot rule out a vote transfer from dissidents in the BJP who have moved away from Siddharth Kunkoliencar and would like to vote for the next best anti-Congress option – Monseratte. But even in this scenario, a stronger Monseratte doesn’t translate to a weaker BJP.
People are speaking about a package deal, where Babush ups the ante but holds back to see BJP slip thorough in he CCP polls, and then does a mega deal of getting a clear passage in Taleigao and St Cruz in the Assembly elections and transferring his Panjim votes to the BJP. Those who have followed grass-root politics of Panjim and Taleigao, believe that this is entirely possible for a man for whom politics is just a means to an end of power and riches.
It is however obvious that he is a force to reckon with. No one does deals with losers.
Meanwhile, for the Congress, entering the CCP fray is good messaging but why on earth did they have to pick Pandurang Madkaikar to lead the CCP campaign? The destruction of the old heritage area of Old Goa, the environmental disasters in Divar, Cumbharjua, Vanxim have all taken place under his watch. He is seen as a Babush Monseratte kind of a politician. Is it some kind of a queer electoral realisation for the Congress that Monseratte can be countered by a man just like him? The Congress, once it decided to back a panel should have handpicked fresh energetic faces to drive home a clear signal that the party is ready for change.
The decision of Surendra Furtado to team up with Monseratte is short term political opportunism and not a long term trump card. The Congress therefore needs to look beyond and create new fresh leadership and not bank on horses which have run their course.
Meanwhile Ponjekars must at the very least understand that the Babush- -Jennifer-Parrikar combination work because the understanding is with the Defence Minister and not necessarily with the party. It is then upto the people of Panjim to decide if they want more of the old wine in an old bottle or look for change agents who will take Panjim back to her days of glory.
