As the dust settles a wee bit, on the “political” breakup of the BJP and MGP, any assumptions that the final word has been said on the matter, will be extremely premature and foolhardy. There are already strong signals emanating from the BJP camp, that the relationship can be given another shot.
To quote the exact words of a senior party leader, “The 440 volt shock was needed to shock and not to kill”. Of course there are assumptions here that the BJP still wants to play the role of big brother and control the post “440 volts” negotiations. The MGP now has options and is looking at tally of three to five seats as a bare minimum. And with people, like Naresh Sawal, and possibly Babu Azgaonkar, set to leave the Congress and heading possibly to MGP, the BJP is looking at setbacks in key sets like Pernem and Bicholim, if MGP goes alone.
The MGP on the other hand, once the heat of the sacking of its ministers has cooled off a bit, is weighing the options of making the BJP as an adversary. Party insiders point out that while the backing of the BBSM, which now has the RSS cadre under Subhash Velingkar, will give a fillip to the MGP, this should be seen against whether cadre will uniformly vote against the BJP or only in selective places.
Another reason why the MGP may do a rethink on its complete split with the BJP stance is significant. Unlike the BBSM or its political avatar the Goa Suraksha Manch, the MGP is not here to play spoiler and be satisfied with the BJP losing seats. The MGP is here to win and it will target at least eight to ten seats. But these seats will not get them to form a government. Ultimately the MGP and the BJP, will have to get together for each other’s shot at power. The Goa BJP is not prepared to accept that power will slip out of its hands. In this scenario the MGP has a golden chance of still sharing power but on its own terms. If they do manage to get close to eight seats and with the BJP needing those seats to get to a majority, MGP’s bargaining power will increase substantially, including a Deputy CM’s position as the very least with an outside chance of pitching for the top job for Sudin Dhavalikar.
Therefore other parties which had initially seen hope in the BJP-MGP breakup should ideally reassess the situation. Whether they officially break up or not, the BJP and the MGP, can very well end up on the same side due to political exigencies and compulsions.
For the Congress especially, the challenge will be immense, and while it could play with the grassroots worker dissatisfaction of BJP and MGP with each other, it should understand that if the parivar partners decide to tango after a breakup, it could leave other parties stranded.
Therefore, the political class needs to get this, that the BJP MGP may have daggers drawn but they are really brothers in arms and the true fact of this relationship will unfold when the candidates for all seats are finally declared.
