warfare used to cease at dusk and begin at dawn. As the morning dawned, after the BJP government sacked two MGP ministers, the first sign of serious political trouble in an otherwise politically uneventful five year term of the BJP, there was already a bit of a rumbling in some BJP quarters and some talk, that the door to the MGP, which shut itself as soon as Chief Minister Parsekar signed the letter to the Governor, recommending the dropping of the Dhavalikar brothers, should only be kept loosely shut.
The reasons for this is not far to seek. The impact of an election without the MGP, in the absence of any wave in favour of the BJP, makes the need for a pre-poll alliance for the BJP even more important. Those in the knowledge of the inner workings of the party and in a position to influence its decisions confirmed that it was very likely that in four or five seats, the MGP will damage the BJP enough to allow a third candidate to edge past very narrowly. The presence of the Goa Suraksha Manch (the political arm of the BBSM), formed with the sole purpose of damaging the BJP and its possible coming together with the MGP, aren’t factors the BJP can ignore.
If the BJP-MGP breakdown is irreversible, the BJP has two problems in its hands. Firstly it will need candidates, who may ultimately be found within the same vote catchment to take on the MGP. Secondly, it will depend even more heavily on independents and newcomers to the party from other parties, and thereby forced to give them positions and power in the next government, if formed. It’s not difficult to understand that a government formed with 18 MLAs will have to make less compromises than a government which is cobbled with only 15 party MLAs and without any more MLAs added through a pre-poll alliance.
On Tuesday morning the tenor of some the statements had been toned down to an extent. As Mr Manohar Parrikar said “At the party level we will continue efforts to form an alliance but the proposal has to come from MGP one-to-one and not through the media.” He even said that the alliance with MGP will be good for the state.
Meanwhile the MGP, inspite of the unexpected decision aimed at teaching them a lesson, is displaying great political shrewdness. It is still isolating Chief Minister Parsekar in its attack and not Manohar Parrikar. At the same time, it is not walking into the waiting arms of the BBSM. Interestingly, even on the language issue MGP talks of “protecting Konkani” and giving ‘justice’ to Marathi. As Sudin Dhavalikar said “We will discuss with BBSM on forming an alliance only after knowing their stand on the language policy. We will discuss their proposal at the Central Committee meeting and thereafter decide on it.
Since BJP is ruling at the Centre we will carefully take a decision with whom we should form an alliance in Goa.”
The last sentence of Sudin Dhavalikar’s statement is critical. The MGP too is acutely aware of who rules India and everything starting from its very existence as a recognised political party in Goa, will have to be heavily fought for, if it parts ways completely with the BJP.
