The recent topsy-turvy in Uttarakhand and swearing-in of new Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami within 116 days of the appointment of Tirath Singh Rawat reveals that “all is not well” in BJP too and knowing that the Uttar Pradesh Elections are not far, NDA has to pull all the cards up its sleeves to ensure that 2024 general elections are not hampered by losses in the State Assembly elections.
Nine Chief Ministers have served Uttarakhand since its split from Uttar Pradesh to become a new State on November 9, 2000. Half a dozen of them, including the inaugural office holder Nityanand Swami and the incumbent Pushkar Singh Dhami represented the BJP while the rest were from the Indian National Congress.
In the neighbouring State Uttar Pradesh which is likely to go to Assembly polls during February-March next year, same as Goa, is already in the election mode. Exuding confidence after BJP’s victory in Uttar Pradesh Zilla Panchayat chairperson election on Saturday, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath claimed before the media that his party will win more than 300 seats in the 403-seat state Assembly elections in 2022. In the recently concluded Zilla Panchayat elections, UP BJP claimed its party-backed candidates won 67 of 75 seats and Indian National Congress had to be satisfied with no seat.
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath told media, “We will win more than 300 seats.” Not too long ago the Union Home Minister Amit Shah, while campaigning for West Bengal Assembly elections, had said, “We will win over 200 seats in 294 member Assembly” but the result was a like an egg on his face as the West Bengal electorate gave a larger mandate than the previous Assembly election to Mamata Banerjee.
Meanwhile, Uttar Pradesh seems to be all set for a four-cornered contest in the Assembly elections early next year when Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, facing criticism for his COVID-19 handling, seeks a second term since the 2017 Assembly elections. After aligning with the Akali Dal for the Punjab assembly elections, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by Mayawati scotched rumours about a possible alliance with smaller outfits such as the Asaduddin Owaisi led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in Uttar Pradesh as it seeks to regain lost ground in the State where she had served four terms as chief minister.
In the 2019 general elections Mayawati’s BSP had joined hands with arch-rival Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal but had failed to stop the BJP’s onslaught in Uttar Pradesh. In the 2017 assembly election the SP and BSP had polled 21.82 per cent and 22.23 per cent votes respectively. Together, both the parties had netted 44.05 per cent votes, higher than the BJP’s 39.67 per cent. However, BJP walked away with 306 of the total 403 seats.
The Samajwadi Party, which had contested the polls in alliance with Congress, could win 49 seats, while the BSP had managed to win 18 seats. The Congress scraped through with seven seats of the 105 it had contested. Samajwadi Party’s President Akhilesh Yadav has already announced that he would not align with any party in the upcoming Assembly elections next year, which is a “great relief” for the BJP following its recent criticism over price rise, COVID chaos and loss in West Bengal.
Much to the delight of the BJP all is not well in the Congress camp too. Jitin Prasada, Rita Bahuguna Joshi and Jagdambika Pal are some top Congress leaders from Uttar Pradesh who have switched loyalties to the BJP in recent years. Others are gauging their options for an opportune time. Meanwhile, Congress, under AICC General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, has been active in reaching out to the people during the pandemic under the leadership of State unit chief Ajay Kumar Lallu.
As of now, the “war” has already begun on social media platforms and the PR agencies of all the political parties are hyper active to build momentum as the D-day approaches early next year. If any political party thinks that it will win the elections on the mood of the social media participants then they need to re-look their strategy and introspect. Whatever be the mood on the social media, the real test will be done on the polling day when people go out to vote in their own frame of mind and choice.
