It happened in 2003. Sixteen years ago the United States invaded Iraq and left a trail of destruction and chaos in the country and the region. Why was the war fought and what did George Bush expect to get in return? The official, and widely-accepted, story remains that Washington was motivated by Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programme which was much of a threat to the US to rage a war. The then US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had said, “We do not want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud.”
This time around too the issue of “political survival” of the leaders seems to be playing a significant role in this recent attack. The timing is apt too. The stage is now set for a war-like situation as Iran has categorically said that it will retaliate as it believes that it was a targeted killing of Soleimani. This brings Washington and Tehran to the brink of a major conflict that could soon reflect in the battlefields of Middle East. Also, while US President Donald Trump faces impeachment, Presidential elections are also not too far.
On Saturday, a series of rockets targeted the highly fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, as well as an air base housing US troops the Iraqi military said in the wake of the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. The rockets were targeted for the city’s Jadriya neighbourhood as well as the heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses government buildings and several foreign missions including the US Embassy.
The killing has caused regional tensions to soar and sparked concerns from the US of a possible backlash against its embassy and bases where US troops are stationed in Iraq. In fact, after the killing of the Iranian Commander the US has deployed another 3,000 more troops in the Middle East. Also, the US has already issued an advisory to its diplomats and citizens who are based outside USA now. Meanwhile, President Trump has also threatened to hit 52 Iranian sites “very hard” if the Islamic republic attacks Americans or US assets.
All eyes are now on Monday and Tuesday when in all likelihood, the Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will lead a prayer ceremony for Soleimani at Tehran University on Monday, whereas the general’s funeral will be held in his hometown Kerman on Tuesday. On Sunday, Soleimani’s body was flown in to Iran from Iraq where he was killed at Baghdad airport on Friday in an US attack.
If the tension escalates and war-like situation develops, it could be murky not only on the battlefield but also in the various stock exchanges in the world. Brent Crude Futures surged over 3 per cent to trade at $ 68.25 per barrel-mark. The West Texas Intermediate, too, gained 2.71 per cent to $ 62.84 per barrel. In the Forex market, the rupee depreciated to a one-month low of Rs 71.61 against the US dollar.
In the stock markets, the oil-related stocks dipped. Oil-marketing firm Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), for instance, declined 2.5 per cent to Rs 262.85 on the BSE, while Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) dipped 1.6 per cent to hit an intra-day low of Rs 479.4. Reliance Industries, Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL), and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), too, slumped up to 0.66 per cent. The situation is alarming and it will have a rippling effect on the Indian economy which has already shown weak signs.
The world suffered from total wastage of fossil fuel due to bombings and subsequently the rise in crude oil prices then. India too suffered a rise in fuel prices which spiralled into price rise in each and every element, which stoked inflation. For India it could be disastrous as the economy at present is showing signs of recession, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is falling and jobs are scarce. If fuel price escalates in coming days, it would really be a tough budget not only for Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman but also for the Chief Minister and Finance Minister of Goa Dr Pramod Sawant to weave.
