The world’s largest lockdown of ⅕th of humanity completes 40 days this weekend and that necessitates me to first look back over the 40 days we spent at home – and then look forward for a tomorrow, taking home lessons learnt – Its serious! It’s life and well-being of the 1.3 billion Indians in the 5th largest 2.7 trillion-dollar-economy and how you wish a Father Zosima’s advice to Aloysha (“The Grand Inquisitor”.) “The mystery of human existence lies not in just staying alive, but in finding something to live for”…in Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s, “The Brothers Karamazov”.
My Take: In 2 parts – the looking back and the lessons on one part and the tomorrow that’s dawning on Monday May 4, on the other.
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On the first, I had seen the lockdown as a precious time for testing people, tracing contacts, isolating positives and treating them. In testing we then were 33 per million of population then, today we are 560 but we are still vastly lower than even Brazil 1,597, Iran 5,269 and Turkey 11,242. So we have a long way to go. The kits that we purchased from 2 companies in China were unsuitable and are being returned!
We are amongst the 15 top countries now, with maximum COVID cases.
The biggest concern is the human face. Hospitals are turning off patients on the suspicion of the patient having contracted the virus! Non-COVID patients suffering without treatments.
The second thing is on confusing communication. For a month we were told that we should not wear masks – masks we understood, were only for the infected and their caregivers. If we knew masks help, we would have worn them 2 months back!
We were told some relaxations were being given from April 20 for example, they meant nothing because there was no transport.
Then, for a family of 5 living in a 10ft by 10ft room, what kind of “social distancing” is really possible? – and that’s 73% of our population.
But the worst plight was suffered by immigrant labourers and daily wage earners. It seems our planners totally overlooked their existence in the first place! With no jobs and dwindling resources, they started walking thousands of kilometres back home with many, including children, collapsing and dying on way tired and drained. Alongside, we were treated to the spectacle of wealthy NRIs ferried home by Air India planes and garlanded on arrival. But then, implementation of plans was never amongst our acknowledged strengths!
My Prescriptions: Our good points however are that, we are not in the 2 lakh cases slot yet, as some “Mathematical Models” would have us believe and the growth rates have come down from 23% a day then to 6% as on date. Our recovery rates are also above the global average and half of India is still COVID-free. We have significant success stories of recovery like in Kerala, Punjab and Telangana. Given this situation and given the fact that the economy was already shut for 40 days, growth projections of Moody’s today at 0.9%, the poor and daily wage earners in dire distress, I think, it’s time to reboot – go hammer and tongs seizing opportunities. In fact, last year in the thresholds of the US-China trade tussles according to a study, out of 56 Companies that relocated from China, 26 went to Vietnam, 11 went to Taiwan, 8 to Thailand, 2 to Indonesia and just 3 came to India. The strong reason for this of course, was instabilities in policy, agenda and priorities.
Next, the Financial Sector (particularly MSME-funding houses) needs urgent repairs. Banks are parking funds with RBI even at lower Reverse Repo Rates rather than lending. I think some sort of sovereign guarantees from the Union Government with time limits and reporting requirements could work. I don’t understand why the Government “requests” industries not to cut wages for the lockdown – no pussyfooting, there has to be an ordinance with punishments attached. Similarly, this dramatic back-and-forth movements of migrants should stop forthwith, MNREGA projects should restart, factories have to restart – we’ll need people!
The Road Ahead: Let full restrictions continue in hot-spots. For other places let’s open up in a staggered program of say, 2 weeks. But this has necessarily to be with full safety protocols. Crowd-drawing spots like schools, colleges, malls and cinemas can continue shut till new infections drop to a datum level to be pre-targeted. Let transports start, trains and planes after say another 2 weeks. But I’m a bit amused to hear voices for “continue lockdown” and that “tourism will take 6 months to resume”..! Simple! – Take the easy way out – status quo! But how will industry run in isolation if workmen or customers are not able to move? Incidentally, how can one state “seal” its borders with another? I think, in a federal republic it sets a dangerous precedence and if there’s a real necessity, it’s the Union Home Ministry’s which has to order.
Goa: I think Goa needs to work out concrete plans for resumption of services along with estimates of support needed. No need staying happy with the “power of control” over locked-up citizens, hoping that the centre will print sheaves of notes for all shortfalls in their salaries. Revise plans for the Rs 3,700 crores of tax revenue, Rs 2,000 crores from Customs, Excise, casinos and tourism and another Rs 6,000 crores on Plans. Borrowings have already touched Rs 15,000 crores at a service costs of Rs 2,000 crores a year!
And in conclusion: Time and Virus waits for nobody….business has to restart…people have to sustain themselves–and it’s not enough just staying alive, but in finding something to live for! Let’s reboot fast!
(Binayak Datta is a Finance Professional)
