The headline above is indeed aimed to trick the mind. But it’s simple really. If you cut to the chase the wave against the BJP in Goa, by disgruntled minorities who feel more betrayed than their majority counterparts, isn’t strong enough to defeat the BJP. And here’s news, the Congress alone can’t ride this wave in 2017, even if it is good enough.
One can also very well ask, is the Congress looking for friends at all in the run up to 2017 or it is waiting for a series of fortuitous circumstances to make it win. Because someone should tell them, that ain’t happening.
At this point of time, the rebuilding, the whirlwind meetings in talukas by the Congress president, the regular “joinings” by panchayat or zilla level leaders touted as the next candidate, are a distant blur as a gob-smacked party comes to terms with its former Chief Minister Digambar Kamat’s impending arrest in the Louis Berger scam (unless community and caste camaraderie prevails over conscience in the government). Yet, it hopes that the axis of power will revolve around the two main parties, the Congress and the BJP.
The fundamental error of judgment within the Congress is that it still thinks of itself as a main player and not a fringe entity that it really is. The new hope infused in them due to the abject failure of the BJP government in all fronts may be a low-hanging fruit but it won’t fall with just a gust of the wind. Therefore, it’s positioning as a principal opposition party rather than just an important spoke in the larger anti-BJP opposition wheel, is politically immature and not bound by circumstances. Rather it is bound by a false sense of what seems a distant past.
Now let us look at who is really a Congress opposition MLA in the assembly. Mr Pratapsingh Rane, very sadly does not fit the description of either “opposition” or “leader”. Like an MS Dos system in the age on Windows 10 or Linux, it has a misplaced sense of being effective. Among Mr Rane’s most significant contributions was he agreeing to Dy Chief Minister Francis D Souza’s view that the Regional Plan need not be sent to villages since most of them raised no objections to the Regional Plan. His party was shocked.
Mauvin Godinho should officially be kept out of discussion on the Congress since his political conversion has made him more saffron than some of the BJP MLAs. Pandurang Madkaikar is scurrying for cover as Manohar Parrikar has unleashed an investigation into his petrol pump deal in Old Goa. Quepem MLA Babu Kavlekar, who plotted his financial surge during his days as GIDC Chairman, got entangled in a mesh of plots he either bought (including those in Kerala) or allowed to be bought/leased flouting GIDC norms.
Meanwhile Babush Monserrate has been officially thrown out which makes his wife’s presence as a Congress MLA, a mere formality.
As for the Ranes, the senior father makes a pretense of making interventions but works on silence as his mode of communication. But there is no strength in this silence. His son too carries on the maun vrat. It’s been ages since we have heard Vishwajeet make a vociferous speech on an issue which has brought the government to its knees.
That leaves Digambar Kamat, the other remnant of the Congress old guard. His going was good since he was one of the two who could count themselves as “opposition” till someone or something called Louis Berger got him. His mind is on temples to get the courts to grant him bail and on the courts to execute the blessings he gets from temples.
Effectively speaking, that leaves the Congress with a lone MLA from Curtorim Alexio Reginaldo Lourenco, who has a clean sheet thus far and can afford to be an opposition voice. All others are entrapped either in the sins of the past or the compulsions of the present.
For an effective opposition to emerge, the Congress can at best hope to be a part of the axis of opposition. And it is in an unenviable and ironic position where it does not have the strength of an opposition party, but by virtue of being the only mainstream opposition party on paper, but it still needs to play the lead role in forming an opposition where it may not ultimately be the leader.
The Louis Berger probe into bribes being taken by two of its former ministers – former Chief Minister Digambar Kamar and former PWD minister Churchill Alemao – has been a cruel jab in the Congress’ solar plexus. The GPCC president Luizinho Faleiro has visibly become disheartened and there is no denying that the energy of the Congress till August has evaporated. Thus there is no way that the Congress can go through the motions of being an opposition party any longer. It does not have the time to regroup and contest the next elections on its own.
The run up to 2017 will be meaningful for anti-BJP forces only if the goalposts of opposition politics changes drastically. Other forces will come into play, namely the MGP, the independents and then those within the BJP who are looking to get away. Of these, the MGP will be the most important and it’s vital to bring this “Dhavalikar” party into the axis of opposition. The MGP is currently caught in bitter infighting within the BJP which is divided between going it alone or tolerating the MGP which is clearly looking at life beyond its senior alliance partner. The MGP, however, truly believes that seniority isn’t about numbers but about history. Sensing the unease among the BJP, the MGP hopes to cash in on the following a) Independents who won either due to BJP support or inspite of the BJP contesting, are looking at alternatives which does not include the Congress. Naresh Sawal of Bichoilim is a prime example in this category. b) BJP MLAs who not want to make an ideological shift and yet be out of the BJP. While Vishnu Wagh heads this category, there are many other Hindu MLAs in the BJP who are not ideologically moored to the parivar like others, like Pramod Sawant and Ramesh Tawadkar. This is not to suggest they have shown any interest in going against the party but it is a fact that both Tawadkar and Sawant have their roots in the Nehru Yuva Kendra movement and not the RSS and will look at retaining another term in power, any which way.
The Congress clearly has to work with forces like the MGP and not against them. The contours of politics have changed. It cannot afford to let issues like the MGP’s stand on the medium of instruction prevent a window of opportunity from being opened. The MGP has to be convinced that both the Official Language Act and the Right to Education make it mandatory for the government to give grants for English schools. It must also bank on history. The Congress has done business with MGP in some form earlier. In 1983, five MGP MLAs joined the Congress (Khalap and Babuso Gainmkar did not). Ravi Naik moved from the MGP to the Congress, Khalap himself did the same, and lest we forget, the MGP was a surrogate of the Congress formed at the behest of Maharashtra Congress leaders.
The Congress or any larger anti-BJP formation must understand that the BJP cannot be defeated in Goa with the support of the Catholics alone. It must get the Hindus and other communities and all the castes. And this has to be done not with a religious pitch but an issue based one.
The third and the vital political force that the Congress needs are minority MLAs in the BJP who are open to joining the Congress and not the MGP. For instance if Michael Lobo is promised a Congress ticket and there can be an understanding and seat sharing with other Congress and independent leaders in Calangute, Saligao, Porvorim, Aldona and Tivim, look at the manner in which Bardez politics can swing.
Therefore the anti-BJP axis has to consist of the following.
a) An umbrella network, where fresh peoples candidates will be given a choice and a chance in places where the mood is against any of the regular party candidates
b) An agreement to have a large alliance which will have the Congress, MGP, independents and those trapped in the BJP
Fotonote: This is by no means an epitaph of the BJP. In fact even after the way it has performed, it knows that the road map for an axis against them is very very rough. But miracles happen. 2012 proved this. So why can’t 2017 do an encore.
