JOHN DAYAL
Indian workers across West Asia and North Africa sus tain families in Kerala, Pun jab, Bihar and many our states at home, and sectors abroad, through their sweat, occasion al tears, steady labour and re mittances. Their contribution is sub stantial; their circumstances are often insecure. Fly out of troubled Iran in coming days as they may, they will remain in demand in Israel, and pos sibly Gaza in the near future if Donald Trump has his way there. This will test the Narendra Modi government’s diaspora and labour policies, safeguard ing rights in countries raved by civil wars, aggressions, and religious majoritarian ism and isolated incidents of xenophobia. Some of these are situations we face within the country with our massive internal mi grations of labour, which fans out to fill the spaces vacated by the lucky ones to have got employment in the Gulf and beyond. Estimates place the Indian migrant population in West Asia at 80 to 90 lakh depend ing on how count the numbers, and the movement of workers across borders. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) accounts for the overwhelming majority – around 85 lakh – based on figures from India’s Ministry of External Affairs and multi lateral agencies. Approximate country-wise distributions are the Unit ed Arab Emirates (34 to 36 lakh, Saudi Arabia (24 to 26 lakh) Kuwait (10 lakh), Qatar (750,000), Oman (700,000 to 800,000), and Bahrain (320,000 to 350,000). Outside the GCC, numbers are smaller and less stable. Before its troubles began re cently, Iran hosts an estimated 20,000–30,000 Indians — stu dents, traders and profession als— while Iraq has 10,000 15,000 workers, largely tied to specific contracts. These figures fluctuate with security conditions and dip lomatic developments. The same people who will sell land and jewellery to get a work visa, will also be among the first to cry out to the govern ment to be rescued by an Air India jet. India is the world’s largest recipient of remittances, re ceiving roughly $111–125 bil lion annually in recent years. West Asia contributes 38 to 45 per cent of this total. The UAE accounts for around $18–20 billion a year, Saudi Arabia $16–18 billion, and Qatar, Kuwait and Oman together $8–10 billion. Flows from Iran and Iraq are harder to measure be cause sanctions and banking restrictions push transfers into informal channels; unof ficial estimates suggest $1 1.5 billion, but reliable data are limited. At the state level, Kerala receives about $7–9 billion annually, closer to 20–25 per cent of its net state domestic product than earlier, higher estimates suggested. Punjab receives roughly $3–4 billion, Uttar Pradesh $2–3 billion, and Bihar per haps $1.5–2 billion, though these figures are model-based and should be treated as indic ative rather than exact. The plummeting of the ru pee against the US dollar has given a massive rise to the real value of the remittances at home. Risks to Indian workers vary by country and sector. Iran illustrates the pressures created by sanctions: banking isolation, currency volatility and complex residency rules. Experts say Indian nationals there are unlikely to be singled out, but face the broader risks of economic disruption and potential spill over from re gional tensions. In Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya, conflict has repeatedly endangered workers’ safety and employment, prompting evacuations. In sanctioned or conflict-affected states, reli ance on informal remittance systems adds financial risk for families in India. The TV and print media dis course in Kerala, where panic is the hallmark of the blanket media discussions, stressed the public discussion should avoid alarmism. The central and state gov ernments’ policy priority is preparedness: consular capac ity, legal support, clear evacu ation protocols and diplomatic engagement. The recent naming of a Gaza Board by US President Donald Trump has renewed specu lation of an urgent and large scale reconstruction of Gaza requiring vast numbers of for eign workers. No authoritative estimate from the United Nations, the World Bank or Palestinian institutions supports figures such as 500,000 workers over a decade. Damage assessments focus on costs and infrastructure, not labour imports. Any re construction would priori tise Palestinian employment, and the political and security barriers to large inflows of foreign labour would be con siderable. Experts, among them for mer diplomats and west Asia academics, suggest several steps that would improve out comes for workers and poli cy-makers alike. The first is clearer data on migrant stocks and remittance flows, with ranges and uncer tainties stated. Modi’s frequent visits to the oil producers of West Asia has not resulted in an apprecia bly robust network of strong bilateral labour agreements to protect rights and resolve disputes. A successful Bollywood film with a top star helming it was based on real incidents dur ing the massive and historic airlift of workers from Ku wait set the height off Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, which triggered a tsunami whose ripples are reflected today in Iran. Kuwait and Iran show the need of enhanced crisis plan ning, including early warning and evacuation capacity. This must be coupled with well documented recruitment and employment. This has become compara tively easier, compared to the 1990s with the advancement in high-speed internet and the use of artificial intelligence al gorithms. Several popular Malayalam films in Kerala have focussed on the plight of ill-trained workers, who end up as slaves in farms, herding sheep or camel, and similar jobs where work is hard and the pay low. There is urgent need for skill development to enable safer and higher-value work and di versify destinations. President Trump is also the author of sanctions. Ex perts are probing how this impacts remittances and their transmission routes, including western banks. The Indian government re mains committed to the wel fare of workers in the Gulf who need more counsellor care than, say, nurses working in the National Health Scheme of the United Kingdom. The plight of Indian work ers who found themselves reportedly pushed into the Russian-Ukraine war shows how the human angle can suddenly jolt the Indian for eign office. Workers in the past have often complained that Indi an missions in West Asia and North African countries are not very sensitive to the needs of the lowest segments of the Indian work force who may not be highly educated or trained in skills, and are the bottom of the pay scale. Diplomatic care must begin with them. (John Dayal is an author, Editor, occasional documentary filmmaker and activist)
