The swift, dramatic and precipitous fall of Bashar al-Assad, the man who ruled Syria with an iron grip that looked unassailable, is again a reminder that power is a fickle and mercurial mistress. The more one tries to cling closer to it, the more it slips out of one’s grasp. Assad should have learnt from other casualties of the Arab Spring more than a decade ago. But his toppling proves that at the rarefied heights of the throne on which a dictator sits, the air is different and the sounds from down below don’t travel much.
Ironically, that one nation-state which seems to be almost every West Asian country’s crosshairs – Israel – is probably poised to reap the highest benefits from Assad’s fall. Hemmed in on all sides by countries that have been trying to decimate it for decades, Israel has been ever vigilant, with its ears forever to the ground, something that dictators like Assad or Saddam forgot to do once they reached the top. Unsurprisingly, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed to have started the process that led to the inflection point in Syria, and subsequently to Assad’s fall. This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East,” Netanyahu said while visiting the Israel-Syria border on Sunday.
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As soon as Assad’s grip loosened on the country, Israel swiftly moved in, taking over a buffer zone in the Golan Heights that has been a tense space since the 1974 war with Syria. According to Netanyahu, this takeover was inevitable, since the Syrian forces had abandoned their position and the former agreement was now null-and-void. Residents of five villages on the Syrian side that are close to the buffer zone have been asked to stay indoors to ensure their own safety. Israel has also struck deep inside Syria, targeting weapons stockpiles, especially chemical weapons that are understood to have been kept by Iran for use across West Asia, especially for the Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is a staunch enemy of the Israeli state.
Israel will also be doubly pleased with the message that Abu Mohammad al-Jolani sent out in his first speech after taking over Damascus. He singled out the “Iranian ambitions” that spread sectarianism and corruption in Syria, making it clear that Syria would no longer be a participant in Iran’s proxy war across the region. The second thing that would have delighted Israel is the fact that al-Jolani chose CNN to give an interview a few days prior to his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel fighters’ takeover of the country. This makes it clear that he is aware of America’s strategic interests in the region, and is trying to make sure that the US is on his side in some way. This is important because for the longest time, there has been a $10 million bounty on his head. But the extra effort to be on the right side of America would not be lost on an astute politician like Netanyahu, who will plan his next steps accordingly.
First, the relentless decimation in Gaza. Then, the pummelling of Hezbollah in Lebanon. And now the fall of Assad and the takeover of Golan Heights. Israel’s recent political history reads like a script with no bad endings, even as it has lost much support across the world because of its violent attacks that have been termed as war crimes, especially in Gaza. Political heft is a function of money, power and strategic planning. But in all of the violence over the past months, Israel has also lots something more intangible, its moral authority to speak to nations of the world on right and wrong, the just and the unjust.
Under Netanyahu’s eagle watch, the question of having a moral compass seems superfluous. From his actions, it seems that the only compass that the Israeli Prime Minister understands is the one that tells him how to expand the frontiers of Israel in all directions. While Assad’s fall presents Syria with another opportunity to rewrite its own history, it also presents Israel with the chance to forge new alliances and move towards that ultimate goal which has eluded West Asia for decades – lasting peace.
However, with a war-mongering Prime Minister in charge, and an indulgent America that protects its interests at every step, the chances of Israel putting its immediate interests over a solution that promises lasting peace are very high. Whether the country can find its tryst with history and keep it, is a story that will unfold over the next months. The world will be watching.
