With the announcement of Lok Sabha polls, by the Election Commission of India, the political battlefield is all set to witness a fierce campaign in the coming days. The Goan political scenario is no different from the national picture. Goa has two Lok Sabha seats – North and South Goa, each comprising 20 seats. The 2014 general election was a wave election and Goa was no exception to it. Both the Lok Sabha seats were won by the BJP. It is the second instance for the BJP to win both the parliamentary seats, the other time BJP had won in 1999 general elections. Not to forget that 2014 general elections were held on the backdrop of assembly elections in 2012. BJP under the leadership of charismatic Manohar Parrikar had won the assembly elections with a clear cut majority of 21 seats.
BJP has managed to win the North Goa seat for the consecutive 4 terms (since 1999). However, South Goa seat has always been the upheaval task for the saffron party. Shripad Naik, has been the BJP MP for the North Goa, since 1999 and currently is the union minister in the Modi government. He was the cabinet minister even during the NDA regime from 1999 to 2004. Shripad Naik, due to his clean image, has won the North Goa seat in 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014. In 2014 general elections, BJP had maintained leads in 19 assembly seats, with the Calangute constituency being the only exception in North Goa. Naik won the North Goa seat with a margin of over 1 lakh vote. The opposition has no issues to raise against the incumbent MP of North Goa. The vote share of BJP in North Goa has increased from 54.96% in 1999 to 58.51% in 2014. The vote share of Congress in North Goa was around 33% in 2014. It was only in 2009 general elections, the Nationalist Congress Party (alliance partner of INC) came close to winning the seat. But still Shripad Naik managed to win with a slander margin of around 6,300 votes.
The strong presence of bahujan samaj in north Goa Vishwajeet Rane swithching sides to BJP has made saffron party more powerful in Sattari taluka. All this makes the north Goa almost a safe seat for BJP in general and Shripad Naik in particular. Though mining issue is relevant in North Goa also, but it is mostly confined to Bicholim taluka having three assembly seats.
It is also important to highlight that in 2017 assembly elections BJP’s tally reached 13 from 21 seats in 2012. In many assembly seats in north Goa BJP has been defeated, but one cannot forget that the party has a strong organisational set up, which can change electoral out come in its favour in the coming general elections. Also, it has been found that voters vote differently in assembly and parliamentary elections. In 2014 BJP won all 7 Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, but in assembly elections held in 2015, it lost very badly against Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party.
The real battle between BJP and INC would be for the South Goa seat. The South Goa parliamentary seat has been considered as a Congress bastion for years. In 2014, BJP in fact wrested the south Goa seat from the INC. The demographics of south Goa is completely different from that of north and this where north–south divide comes into the picture. The south Goa politics is dominated by M factor Mopa Airport, Medium of Instruction (MOI) and Mining. Presently, the Mopa and MOI issues are totally sidelined and third M factor i.e mining has emerged on the forefront. The vote share BJP increased from 42.28% in 2009 to 48.44% in 2014, whereas, the vote share of Congress declined to 40.56% (2014) from 46.88% (2009). The BJP candidate Narendra Sawaikar defeated Alex Reginaldo (Congress candidate) with the margin of around 32,000 votes.
In 2014, Sawaikar had got leads in 14 assembly seats, whereas, Congress got in only 6 seats. All these 6 leads came from Salcete taluka alone. BJP had leads in all the talukas viz. Ponda, Mormugao, Quepem, Sanguem and Canacona. Also, it had got massive leads in the mining belt, particularly in constituencies viz. Sanguem, Sanvordem, Curchorem and Quepem. It was only in Salcete taluka the INC got the majority votes. But still BJP managed to take leads in Margao and Fatorda Constituency, despite not having MLAs from these seats. Even in constituencies like Curtorim, Navelim, Cuncolim and Nuvem it has made strong inroads. That is evident from the fact that BJP has got more than 5000 votes in these assembly constituencies, whereas, in Benaulim and Velim, it had to settle with over 4000 votes.
The huge leads in the mining belt enabled the BJP to sail smoothly over the Congress. But presently, with the closure of mining activities and ongoing agitation in the mining belt under the banner of Goa Mining Peoples Front (GMPF), raises doubts about the electoral outcome particularly for BJP. Again, if the transfer of votes does take place, then whether these votes will shift to Congress or not is a big question, with no immediate answer.
The construction of new Zuari bridge and District Hospital, opening new passport office in south Goa, relaxing the requirement of SSC for seafarers are some of the initiatives taken by the present government to woo the minority votes in its favour. But one has to wait and see how much transfer of votes takes place in favour of BJP.
Finally, the post Pulwama attack and the subsequent surgical strike, the issue of national security has taken the centre stage. This issue is still fresh in the minds of the voters and likely to benefit the ruling party at the Centre. In fact, air strike across the LOC has led to the emergence of PM Narendra Modi as a more stronger leader than before and is bound to benefit the BJP in the electoral politics. Not to forget that, NDA had won 1999 Lok Sabha election on the backdrop of Kargil war. Though, local issues are important but in the general elections it is the national issues which supersede all the other issues.
(The author is Assistant Professor in Economics, Dnyanprassarak Mandal’s College and Research Centre, Assagao, Goa.)
