ROBIN ROY
Even as the stage is set for five Assembly elections across states and Union Territory like (respectively) Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal and Pondicherry… it seems that the elections in West Bengal will turn out to be the Mother of All Poll Battles. At Kolkata’s largest Eid gath ering, West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee accused PM Narendra Modi of being the “biggest in filtrator” and linked the charge to voter roll deletions under the Election Commission’s SIR exercise. She alleged the BJP was targeting minority voters, imposing an undeclared Presi dent’s Rule, and attempting to destabilise the TMC govern ment ahead of the crucial polls. The BJP, in turn, condemned her remarks as unbecoming of a CM and intensifying an already highly polarised poll battle. Like the Assembly poll in 2021, the polls in 2026 will see almost the same script of Su vendu contesting against Mam ata at her poll turf that is Bhaba nipur from where Mamata has fought several elections. From Nandigram to Bhaba nipur If it was Nandigram in 2021… it is Bhabanipur in 2026. Suvendu’s gamble with Bhabanipur is a different ball game. Politically, Bhabanipur has always been a stronghold of Mamata Banerjee. She has fought from the constituency multiple times and has also re turned to the Assembly (from here) in a by-election after she lost to Adhikari in Nandigram in the 2021 Assembly polls. Despite a high-octane poll battle, the SIR list revealed that at least 47,000 names were deleted from this seat, with a further 14,154 names under adjudication. As a result, for the ruling TMC retention of Bhabanipur has become a major prestige issue also the political identity of the TMC’s supremo has been closely associated with the seat and now that Adhikari has de cided to contest from there… Bhabanipur has become the cynosure of all eyes. Bhabanipur’s demography? Bhabanipur has a mixed population. Around 40% of the voters are from non-Bengali communities. This mix has fa voured Mamata Banerjee. And the BJP is seeking an opening among the non-Bengali busi ness community. Also, it is to be seen how the Trinamool’s “outsider” rhetoric works among this mixed community base. The social mix will play a deciding factor in this polls. Mamata had won Bhabani pur by 58,000 votes. While the BJP leadership said that these were duplicate or invalid en tries, the Trinamool Congress has alleged large-scale remov al of genuine voters. Only time will say whether BJP’s master plan works or the astute Mam ata manages to break free. BJP bid to tie down Mamata? TMC supremo Mamata al ways insisted that she was the only face for the party’s 294 seats, and with the BJP fielding Adhikari from Bhabanipur, po litical analysts feel that the Saf fron party’s strategy would be to tie down Mamata especially to that seat during the crucial campaigning phases. In the current scenario, polit ical analysts are asking wheth er Mamata will get enough time to campaign across the state especially at constituen cies where the battle is tight. By fielding Adhikari from both Bhabanipur and Nandi gram (where he defeated Mam ata in 2021), the BJP is trying to play psychological game on the TMC top brass. After losing from Nandigram in 2021, Mamata stood from Bhabanipur. She won the seat and continued as the state’s CM. BJP’s move to field Adhika ri from Bhabanipur may put a brake on Mamata’s campaign ing plans across the state. Will it, won’t it? Bhabanipur has turned into a Big Ticket constituency with both Mamata and Adhikari in the fray. If Adhikari loses, it will be major setback for the BJP as Adhikari who has been on a winning streak since 2021. In case Mamata loses, the TMC will have a bigger disappoint ment as it would mean a back to-back defeat for the CM since 2021 notwithstanding the fact that Bhabanipur constituency lies in the heart of Kolkata. “I defeated her in Nandi gram. This time I will defeat her in Bhabanipur as well. I will make her a former chief minister by a margin of 20,000 votes,” Adhikari had said. Adhikari plays safe Political analysts feel the BJP’s decision to field Adhika ri from both Bhabanipur and Nandigram is part of the think tank’s strategy. In 2021, Adhikari’s win against Mamata may have been just 1,956 votes, but the victory boosted the party’s prospects and the Saffron party was able to clearly spell out its narrative. Also, it was from Nandigram that Mamata had began her electoral campaign to unseat the mighty Left. The BJP’s policy is simple… if it wants to win Bengal, it has to take on the TMC’s top brass head on and try to dismantle its bastion. Even if Adhikari loses from Bhabanipur narrowly, the battle will be important for the Saffron party. In Nandigram… If you thought that Bhaba nipur was the major high oc tane seat… sample this… the most dramatic development surrounding the candidate an nouncement came from Nan digram, where the TMC fielded newly-inducted leader Pabi tra Kar against LoP Suvendu Adhikari. TMC along with its think tank spent almost eight months to set the right candidate to take on Adhikari in Nandigram. Finally, on March 17 Kar for mally joined the TMC at the party’s office in Kolkata. He was personally welcomed by Abhishek. And within hours of the induction, Kar was de clared the TMC nominee for Nandigram. Kar was among the 13 indi viduals who joined the TMC on March 17 and were immediate ly fielded for the polls. With Mamata sticking to Bhabanipur, there was intense curiosity about who would take on Adhikari in Nandigram. By nominating Kar, the Trinamool has opted for a candidate em bedded deeply in the local political scenario. Kar’s candi dacy carries strategic signifi cance especially because of the demographic composition of the constituency (Nandigram). The constituency is divided into two blocks, with distinct political dynamics. The Nandi gram I block has a big Muslim population while Nandigram II is dominated by Hindus. Kar is widely recognised as a prominent Hindu political face in Nandigram II block. TMC strategists believe his popular ity and organisational network and capability could help the TMC’s prospects. Kar is also known to have deep knowledge about Adhika ri’s political machinery. He was associated with the Trinamool before shifting to the BJP in 2020 alongside Adhikari. This was during the wave of defec tions that had preceded the 2021 Bengal polls. Within the BJP, Kar was con sidered as one of Adhikari’s trusted associates and played an important role in local mo bilisation. (Robin Roy is a Senior Journalist and former Senior Associate Editor, O Heraldo, Goa)
