The New Year started with a “historic victory” over Aussies and a “historic quota” – reservation of 10% of jobs (which in the first place are vanishing fast) for 86% of our population! Whilst hoping we have a more constructive year (of the first type) ahead, I thought we could look at lessons from the year that went by – and the agenda ahead for the New Year! But first – in true flavour of our times – let’s decide on a name for the new year! Well – if 2018 happened to be the ‘Year of Self-Imbroglios’ (Supreme Court vs the Supreme Court, CBI vs the CBI and RBI vs Government, Past Bureaucrats vs Present Bureaucrats, Trump vs FBI, Trump vs FED, Past Chief Minister vs State-Party President……), 2019 would now definitely be the ‘Year of Reckoning’!..And why I say this?
My Take: I say this, because I am certain, most of the results of activities in the past years – internationally, nationally and in this State, would be coming in during 2019 – the ‘Year of Reckoning’!
In the global context, I can see changes in the World trade patterns. Protectionism playing a more important role; India I think, has major opportunities, for example in the US-China 630-billion-dollar trade. But the year shall continue to remain economically tough with real growths in US GDP around 2% and the Fed Chairman not enough amenable to the US President’s populistic extravaganza. China’s ambitions in its Belt and Roads initiative particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and initiatives along the South China Sea will continue to be irksome, certainly.
Viewed in the domestic context, I have on my slates five important issues that would be coming up in the new year. First, the question of credibility in Governance. I do not see a permanent solution, as the elections slated mid-year, for all that I am able to foresee, will bring a fresh bucket of uncertainties as its results and credibility, which today is somewhere at the deep bottom (the unkept promises, reserving jobs which do not exist, renaming cities, building statues, demeaning Institutions, building cow-universities and piling of bad loans) needs urgent repairs. Having been at the helm of finance in huge corporates myself, I’m clearly flummoxed as to where all the extra bonanza on taxes on petroleum and the incremental direct and indirect tax collections went to. In any case all targeted schemes are woefully behind schedules. And still we remain cagey for the 3.3% targeted deficit.
Here in Goa – I wonder whether there is any nadir still left, where credibility of governance could still dip to – after a default of 5 years, an action-plan-less tourism policy has surfaced on the face of a good 30% fall in foreign tourists – leaving stakeholders non-plussed. I’m myself non-plussed on constantly confusing and conflicting assurances on mining, not a penny recovered from violators, on shifting of Casinos, on one more of the countless committees on the MOI. Can we really have a priority other than the priority of proving our credibility? Doing the tipster in Terry Pratchett’s “The Truth” and accept…“Sometimes glass glitters more than diamonds because it has more to prove.”
The second point is that of jobs. Not jobs only suitable jobs for our youngsters. According to the Centre for Monitoring India’s Economy (CMIE) data we lost 11 million jobs in 2018. There are no visible plans for increasing salaried jobs for the middle class; a key requirement viewed by the World Bank. But we “reserve” those invisible jobs! I may mention China’s salaried employment happens to be 88% of its total workforce ours is less than 20%!
The next year would see wide ranging changes in types of jobs, with deployment of more and more of Artificial Intelligence in manufacturing, particularly logistics. I am quite apprehensive of the degree of preparedness our universities equip our children with.
The third agenda for the year is the agrarian distress. The farmer is not able to get his price for his produce and we are on lengthy debates on his costs and multifarious formulas on MSPs. Serious discussions on farm logistics and warehousing, on price stabilisation fund, on perennial irrigation and on productivity should be on agenda!
The fourth agenda is the environment. It’s quite perplexing that we readily slice away our CRZ buffers on our islands and slash FAR requirements, when we vociferously cry for climate change initiatives at the Katowice COP24 Summit! It’s an irony that 13 of the 15 most polluted cities of the world are in India and year after year our Capital City is rated “Hazardous” on environmental ratings unfit for healthy human habitation!
My agenda for Goa now, in addition to these, is mining – and the need to buck up and start immediately on the auction process – so that we can enter auctions in the immediately next round. Simultaneously, recover with interest and penalty the huge amount of tax-payers’ money due from violators of law.
And as we glide thru the new year – the last in this decade, India will most certainly be overtaking UK on the slot for the 5th largest World Economy – and it gives us, citizens (who in age are somewhat close to that of Independent India) – it gives us tremendous pride – but even more than that it would be excellent for us to see our boys and girls get the right jobs and opportunities, the corrupt is brought to books, the farmer finds his job exciting, the per-capita nominal income increases from our 140th place amongst 188 countries (at a meagre of $1,706 per annum) and more than everything, we have, we have clean air to breathe! That’s the final reckoning!
(Binayak Datta is a Finance Professional and has been Company Director and CFO in large MNCs and Indian corporates. He has been a consultant to The Asian Development Bank).
