The entire political focus in Goa has been on how the shifting BJP votes haven’t yet found an opposition to receive this growing anti-BJP sentiment and capitalize on it. In fact the Goa BJP’s entire pre-election politics is to keep the opposition divided and more time, energy and, yes, money is being spent on precisely this. However while doing so, the BJP, perhaps, is making the fundamental mistake of ignoring the growing chasm between them and their ally the MGP. If this leads to the break in their alliance, there is absolutely no possibility of the BJP coming to power.
Goa, inspite of being such a tiny state has at least three distinct and diverse political universes. The North Goa Coastal belt, Salcete and South Goa and then what is loosely known as the Hindu belt across Satari, Ponda and down to Sanguem and Quepem. The mainstream political discourse and debate about Goa is often generated, debated and concluded in the first two universes, without taking into account very complex and game changing factors in the Hindu belt of the eastern hinterland Goa. It is here that the battle between the BJP and MGP will be played out and the acute differences between the two could actually swing the elections either way.
According to inner party sources, the BJP- MGP differences are only an extension of the divisions between the RSS and the ruling BJP over ideological issues, with the stand of the government on giving grants to English medium schools, becoming the moot differential. The MGP finds itself with the RSS and not with the government on this issue. However for the MGP, the MoI issue is the just the extra cream on its dessert of differences with the BJP. The MGP wants to contest these elections on its own terms and for itself. There is also a compulsion to do so. It needs to win at least three seats or get 6% of the total votes which roughly amounts to slightly over a lakh votes, in order to retain its symbol and registration. This is why it will drive a very hard bargain during seat sharing talks if the alliance lasts at all. As we have learnt and reported in this edition(see page 2), the MGP, in addition to the seven seats it contested last time (winning 3), wants Shiroda, Canacona, Valpoi, Poriem and Bicholim, all former MGP bastions. Out of these the BJP has ministers from Shiroda and Canacona and will be in no position to hand these seats over. In Bichiolim, with the re-entry of Rajesh Patnekar, the BJP will not give this seat up. There is thus a very strong likelihood of Bicholim becoming the breaking point for the BJP-MGP alliance.
The BJP, even as it works its dirty tricks department overtime to ensure a fragmented and warring opposition, needs to constitute a full-fledged fire fighting unit to keep its own alliance together. It should understand that breaking an alliance is far easier than making one and a break in the BJP-MGP alliance will mean, that it will no longer matter if the opposition is united or divided.
Clearly, the BJP will sign its own destruction warrant if it cannot protect its alliance with the MGP.
