The people’s verdict
After the high decibel din of India’s five week long staggered elections, the world and a large section of India’s population will wait with baited breath to see not only the outcome of the hard fought election but if the political pundits’ and psephologists’ deification of Narendra Modi was right. Or whether they have lost it altogether, and an impasse will dog Indian democracy, with a fractured mandate, giving way to hectic political lobbying to cobble up a majority.
Veritably this election set many records – a record voter turnout of 66.38% of the 827-million-strong Indian electorate, surpassing the 1984, 64% turnout when Rajiv Gandhi was elected; the highest number of 551 million voters which surpassed the combined population of the US, Germany, Canada and the UK.
This was also the most expensive Indian election with Rs 3426 crore spent by the national exchequer, surpassing the 2009 Lok Sabha election, where Rs 1483 crore was spent. But the total expenditure of government, political parties and candidates has been estimated at a mind boggling Rs 30,000 crore.
This election will go down in history as also the most vitriolic given the desperation of the opposition BJP, the Sangh Parivar and other parties to come to power and the desperation of the Congress and its allies to hold on to it. But most certainly the 2014 election has been about the angst and the projected euphoria around the most polarising of Indian leaders in decades – Narendra Modi. The BJP’s prime-ministerial nominee has opponents not only within the Indian middle class and the poor, but within his own party and its allies. If BJP nears the 250 mark on its own, it is inevitable that allies will be willing to be on their side and the coalition could easily cross the 272 mark.
However, presuming that the Congress hovers around the 120 mark, it is the performance of the regional players such as the AIADMK, DMK, TMC, BJD, JD(U), NCP, NC, RJD, SP, BSP, JD(S) and Communists that will effectively determine the nature of the future government, in case the NDA does not romp home with a majority.
As on previous occasion, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Haryana and Tamil Nadu will be the key battle grounds. For the BJP it remains to be seen how many seats will they get from their strongholds of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and the key battle grounds of UP and Bihar.
The Congress would look for consolation from states dominated by its governments, states it frittered away like Andhra and from the North East. But if the predicted rout of the Congress does materialize today, owing moral responsibility, it has to bury its ego and allow the regional players to form a government and atone for its sins, by supporting the third front government from outside.
Apart from the maths, in an election where the loudest discourse has been dominated by the television media, one has to realize that the outcome need not be necessarily the result of a democratic process as minorities, Dalits and other poor communities in certain parts of the country have to fight to exercise their franchise which has been denied to them by higher caste landowners and those in power, though things have changed tremendously in the past over six and a half decades.
The results of this election will be path breaking for India in many ways, but most importantly, in the way it is governed. This election is also about fighting for the soul of India and retaining its essence and the fundamental principles on which the Republic has been anchored upon. The makers of the Indian Constitution established a democracy that is the cynosure of all eyes in the civilised world, through animated and at times acrimonious debate. No matter which dispensation comes to power, it should uphold the secular and socialist strands in the Constitution that has held this Republic firmly together and defied the doomsday prophets at their best. Only then will this outcome justify the humungous inputs.
