Annual monsoon rain, the lifeline of Indian agriculture, which had initially progressed fairly well after arriving at the southern Kerala coast on 5 June and brightening prospects of high farm output by enabling farmers to plant summer-sown crops such as rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, etc., on time, has suddenly become erratic since June 26. This comes even as the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on June 26 that the south-west monsoon had already covered the entire country and that the season’s overall rainfall had been nearly 27 per cent higher than the normal average for that period, raising consumer’s hope for some relief from spiraling dal and edible oil prices with farmers significantly steeping up sowing of pulses and oilseeds on the back of bountiful monsoon rain.
The good spell of rainfall in June across southern, western and central India had led to the progressive area planted under Kharif pulses nearly doubling to 11.04 lakh hectares (1h), from 6.14 lh covered during the period last year, while going up more than five times in the case of oilseeds (from 5.29 to 27.89 lh). The main pulses – growing states – Karnataka, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh (MP) – have reported substantial jump in sowing of arhar (toor or pigeon-pea), moong (green gram) and urad (black gram) this time. Likewise, there has been a huge jump in acreages under soyabean in MP (from practically zero at this time last year to 15.82 lh) and groundnut in Gujarat (from 0.64 lh to 3.71 lh) and Andhra Pradesh (from 0.48 lh to 0.91 lh), thanks to monsoon’s bountiful rainfall in June.
This was good news for consumers, who have been seeing prices of essential food commodities skyrocketing. Dal prices soared by roughly 50 per cent over the last one year, due to increasing demand for pulses and their limited availability in the global market. Mustard oil is, likewise currently retailing at around Rs 125 per kg compared to Rs 100 a year ago, while groundnut oil prices have soared from Rs 85 to Rs 120 a kg for this period. Low domestic production has resulted in India’s aggregate import bill on edible oils and pulses climbing from $ 9.08 billion in 2013-14 to $12.46 billion in 2014-15.
The monsoon’s better than expected performance in June had also enabled increase in acreage under cotton and coarse grains such as maize. However, rice area has fallen. The main reason for that was the monsoon rains have not been that good in the Indo-Gangetic plains stretching from Punjab and Haryana to Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. But from an inflationary perspective, there is not much to worry on the rice front, as the government has enough stocks in its godowns.
According to Union Ministry of Agriculture, the picture of agriculture in general in the initial (sowing) stage of this season was encouraging, but a lot will depend in July and August rains, as the plant growth and yields are mainly influenced by how the monsoon plays out in those couple of months.
June rainfall decides areas under cultivation for major crops, but, equally important is the distribution of rainfall between June and September. Unfortunately, the unexpected spell of good rainfall in June, which promised to ride over predictions of bad monsoon this year, is over and the country is experiencing an almost dry spell. Most regions in India have seen a sharp decline in rainfall after June 26, recording below normal rain. Only Eastern India, particularly Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh and the northeastern region have been receiving rainfall in the past few days. These areas had been relatively dry when the rest of the country was enjoying good rainfall.
Weather scientists say that the good rainfall in June – more than 25 per cent above normal till June 25 – was triggered by what is known as Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The eastward moving rain-bearing wind system along the tropics impacts monsoon systems around the world, including the southwest monsoon that brings rain over the Indian sub-continent. The MJO when passes through the Indian ocean, it usually results in good rainfall over India. Thanks to the MJO, the monsoon covered the entire country atleast two weeks in advance.
However, according to experts, the MJO has gone past now and it is out of phase, and so we are seeing a reduction in rainfall. The Indian monsoon oscillates between wet and dry phases every few weeks after it arrives. In a good monsoon year, there are more wet phases than dry phases, while in a drought year, the dry phases dominate over wet phases. Forecast for the next few days shows that only northeastern India and some parts of eastern and central India, besides Kerala are likely to receive widespread rainfall, while the rest of the country is expected to receive only scattered or isolated rain showers.
Monsoon rains are crucial for agriculture in India as only 40 per cent of its cultivable area is under artificial irrigation. Even though agricultural income constitutes a declining share of India’s gross domestic product (GDP), from being 60 per cent in 1951, it is now 15 per cent – it represents the livelihood of two-thirds of its people. So, for the farming community, the monsoon means survival. If it fails, or if the distribution of rain is abnormal, it immediately reduces the earning capacity of rural India and food grain production. Besides, it also affects the generation of hydro-electric power, puts a brake on industrial growth and pushes up prices.
(The writer is a freelance journalist)
