Even before the voters of Goa have examined the MLAs of the BJP the party has, and in a manner reminiscent of an internal examination in an university before the big one where external examiners take charge, two such assessments have been carried out by the party wise men. And some of its MLAs have been put on notice by super boss Manohar Parrikar for being in extremely weak positions in their constituencies. And they are Mahadev Naik, Dayanand Mandrekar and Subhash Phal Dessai.
Mr Parrikar has issued specific directions to bring in change in their behaviour towards voters, which is major cause of worry. “He (Parrikar) himself is personally monitoring these three constituencies. In last two-three months the situation is slowly improving,” said a BJP leader.
Failed promises, arrogance cum goondaism, non-people friendly and less populist and internal conflict-factors are contributing to ruling BJP losing or having shaky ground in at least nine of its ruled constituencies ahead of 2017 State Assembly elections. Undoubtedly, the saffron party is busy adopting a strategy to pit the Congress leaders against each other in few major constituencies, but finds itself fighting a tough battle retaining at least seven constituencies which they won last time. And this could stretch to even 9, in a potentially bad election year or cross the double digit mark to 11 in a political disaster of an election
But the “risk” filled constituencies do not just include Shiroda, Siolim and Sanguem held by the three MLAs singled out for “attention”. They extend to heavyweight ones like Pernem (Minister Rajendra Arlekar) St Andre (deputy speaker Vishnu Wagh), Canacona (Minister Ramesh Tawadkar), Cortalim (Minister Alina Saldanha), Sanvordem (Ganesh Gaonkar) and Vasco (Carlos Almeida). With nine seats at risk, the BJP needs to do some serious damage control, even while taking into account sitting MLAs defecting from the Congress and the potential addition of an independent MLA as a winning BJP candidate.
However, with no clear cut opposition and fragments of parties and leaders expected to line up with the BJP after the elections, the BJP is hopeful of numbers adding up to the magic figure of 21. The Congress is on the sinking side with the new entrant Aam Admi Party (AAP) set to cause a dent in many of the Salcete constituencies. But again, rebel RSS backed Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM) will play a crucial role in damaging BJP’s base in certain ways.
The political rivals feel that the anti-incumbency feeling in these nine seats may brighten up their prospects or may even help to further weaken BJP’s existence there.
Highly-placed party sources have also admitted that BJP is uncertain about their victory in Pernem, Sanvordem, Vasco and St Andre. But the battle field for Sanvordem may change if party fields its president Vinay Tendulkar there. “In Pernem we are slipping. The Goa Suraksha Manch (led by RSS rebel Subhash Velingkar) is playing a major factor. In Sanvordem, unless BJP state president Vinay Tendulkar contests, we do not stand a chance,” a member of the BJP state executive said.
“In Vasco, our candidate is not very popular. And due to Vishnu’s ill health he may not be in position to contest the coming election. We have no strong candidate in these two constituencies – Vasco and St Andre,” BJP senior member said.
PERNEM: In Pernem, a Congress ruled constituency, saw the Lotus symbol only in 2012 when Arlekar – RSS swayamsevak — was voted to power. However, the BJP is all set to lose the ground as people there are upset with failed promises. Interestingly, the line taken by the BBSM and now the Goa Suraksha Manch on the issue of Medium of Instruction has resonated with the Pernem locals.
SANVORDEM: Meanwhile Ganesh Gaonkar’s is having a bit of an image crisis in Sanvordem. A transport contractor, his perceived arrogance has upset BJP workers. Recently, BJP workers from Sanvordem, including panchayat members met Parrikar and warned to field a rebel candidate if a ticket is granted to Gaonkar. It is an open secret that the BJP State President Vinay Tendulkar is tacitly supporting these anti-Gaonkar groups, as Tendulkar is very keen to contest the seat.
SIOLIM: Meanwhile, in Siolim, the BJP claims that it has managed to arrest the political slide in the last two-three months but the ground situation does not seem to reflect so. The redevelopment of Chapora jetty and the Sodiem temple issue has converted Mandrekar’s supporters into his opponents. Also AAP has announced its candidate Prithvi Amonkar, who is been doing a lot of ground work.
CORTALIM: In Cortalim, Alina Saldanha managed to win the by-polls due to the strong sympathy way post death of her husband Minister and MLA the late Matanhy Saldanha. However, the sole woman MLA in the party is facing a tough time within. Until last year, Saldanha was in loggerheads with her own Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar over several issues. Her anti-government decisions including opposition to Marina project was not liked by her seniors. As a result of this, she was removed from the post of Minister for Environment and Forest.
CANACONA: In Canacona Tribal Affairs Minister Ramesh Tawadkar is struggling to retain his seat, though he may still get the party ticket. Also with former BJP MLA Vijay Pai Khot planning to contest as an independent, the Congress inclined to field Isidore Fernandes and with AAP’s Sandesh Telekar , the division of Catholic and Hindu votes amongst these three will boost Tawadkar.
When contacted, the Goa Suraksha Manch president Anand Shirodkar said that of these nine constituencies, GSM has advantage in six and has good candidates to project there. “We have a biggest advantage in six constituencies out of these nine. The anti-BJP wave will be a factor,” Shirodkar said.
The Congress meanwhile seems the claiming some of these seats that the BJP may concede. The 2012 election witnessed an anti-congress wave. Ahead of the 2017 election, the anti-BJP wave is very strong. “Congress is doing really well not only in these nine constituencies but some more BJP held seats,” said Congress spokesperson Sunil Kawthankar, in a statement that reminds us that hope always springs eternal.
