The contest places Congress candidate, Surendra Furtado, a long-time councilor of the Panjim municipality against the novice politician, Siddharth Kunkoliencar, of the BJP.
But while Furtado moves around on his visits with a group of select supporters, depending on which area he is canvassing in, Kunkoliencar’s campaign is spearheaded by the former Panjim MLA and current Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, who has a large support base in the constituency having represented it for 20 years.
Parrikar, this far, has been concentrating on visiting voters of the minority communities who have voted for him, rather than for the BJP. Analysts say that the result this time would depend a lot on whether these personal votes that Parrikar can claim would vote for the party with a candidate other than Parrikar.
For Parrikar, who has made it a prestige issue to win the seat, this is the challenge. He earlier told the media, “If I can defend the country, then I can defend this seat.”
Though the BJP has had a head start in its campaign and the Congress campaign has not really taken off, there will be a few factors that will play to Furtado’s advantage.
Analysts feel that the situation in the country, especially the conversion versus re-conversion controversy, the ‘ghar wapsi’ programmes by right-wing elements affiliated directly or indirectly to the BJP, various statements being made by elected representatives of the ruling party will work in favour of the Congress candidate. Analysts say this could lead to the minorities and even the moderates in the majority community voting in favour of the Congress, not because they are pro-Congress but because they are uneasy with the overt communal signals.
Another factor that could hurt the BJP’s prospects is the perception of its candidate not being a people-friendly person. Whether this feeling, even within the party cadre, will lead into a vote against the BJP is difficult to gauge, especially given that the BJP supporters always stand by the party.
The Congress candidate too carries some baggage with many within his party arguing that he twice gave away the seat to the BJP by contesting as an independent.
However, the February 13 by-election is the best chance that a Congress candidate has had for a long time with many extraneous factors playing in his favour.
