The perceived signal that ‘karyakartas’ would get de-moralised if Manohar Parrikar did not contest from Panjim, seems to have brought the Chief Minister back ‘home’ to Panjim. After a lot of seat searching and analysis, the Chief Minister almost ‘went’ to Curchorem before pulling back, realising the consequences of a sustained pre-election spin, that he was not confident of winning in his own backyard, where he has won five times on the trot from 1994 onwards, till he moved to join the Narendra Modi government.
The Parrikar by-election, is all about perception management. Even as there were discussions and speculation about which seat he would chose to enter the Legislative Assembly, the possibility of him leaving Panjim was making more news than from where he would actually contest from.
A move not to contest from Panjim would send these signals:
The narrow margin of victory of Sidharth Kuncalienkar in Panjim due to the twin factors of Babush Monseratte and AAP’s Valmiki Naik, meant that this wasn’t going to be simple walkover for the CM. While MGP will not field a candidate, the Goa Suraksha Manch, no longer aligned with the MGP, may yet do. If Parrikar decided to not contest from Panjim the opposition would have tom-tommed the fact that his base in his backyard has slipped.
Secondly, much of Panjim’s face lift-purported or otherwise, its beautification, and the infrastructure upgradation planned as a part of the SMART city project, was conceived during his tenure. Like the Ranes in Sattari, and Digambar Kamar in Margao, Parrikar has been identified with Panjim. He also realises that during his absence a portion of the vote bank which was more loyal to him than the party were or have shown signs of moving away. In a fluid political situation that the party is in, consolidation rather than risk taking is the need of the hour. The caveat here is that Sidharth Kuncalienlkar still managed to win the seat but it was very tough fight and a disunited opposition saw him through.
Thirdly and this is pure logistics. This isn’t about just winning the seat but handling it for the rest of the term. Handling Panjim as a constituency is far easier than Curchorem or even Vasco. The workers and leaders are in place. Kuncalienkar can continue to play his earlier role and nurse his own constituency on behalf of Parrikar. And since he lives and works here, the daily touch can happen, inspite of his pressing schedule, unlike any other constituency.
The consolidation of party workers and giving them a confidence injection is critical to Mr Parrikar’s success. Managing these expectations is relatively easier from Panjim than elsewhere.
After the results of Assembly elections, the cadre was completely demoralised. In fact a senior organisation person revealed that “on the 11th afternoon, (counting day) we were ready to close the offices and go home when we were told that it is the Prime Minister and the party president’s (Amit Shah) diktat that the government must be formed. But even now, party works have not recovered from the loss of so many seats. A mere formation of the government will not revive confidence. A lot of work has to be done”.
But Curchorem was indeed discussed among the party executive and other members and this option was not completely rejected by Parrikar. Time was taken to weigh in the pros and cons before closing in on the Panjim decision.
It’s clear though that, this will not just be another by-election where a victory is a formality. It’s not the result but how the Chief minister manages the expectations of party and his cadre at a time when control over the government is shared, which will decide if the BJP will be battle ready in 2019.
