The euphoria of pulling off one of the most incomprehensible political coups of government formation in recent Indian political history should have left the BJP absolutely upbeat and on cloud nine. It got its much wanted Chief Minister back, some of its heavyweights who were carrying baggage which was burdening the party, have been ousted, and it now has at least two years till 2019 to consolidate and then decide how to handle the remaining three years.
But realities defy perceptions. This is for the first time since 2005, that the party, perhaps, needs to go back to the drawing board and rebuild in the blocks of Goa. And herein lies the challenge and the roadblock. If the party had decided to accept the 13 seat mandate and retreated from the government formation race, and devoted the next three years to an organisational turn around at the party-level and be a strong opposition force in the Assembly, this path would have been easy. Now it’s nimbleness of tightrope walking and managing coalition compulsions and the affect it might have on the party, especially in the blocks, will be severely tested.
Meanwhile some hard truths need to be digested. The electorate has rejected poor performance of BJP ministers and voted back to power BJP MLAs who have delivered relatively well. Its success in Mormugao taluka (where the BJP won all four seats) however shouldn’t be confused with ministerial performance, where wafer thin margins of victory indicate that multiple centred contests gave BJP victories.
Then, in this government, the BJP has just two ministers besides the Chief Minister – Francis D’ Souza and Pandurang Madkaikar. D’Souza’s position is not likely to ignite passion amongst the cadre through the state. As for Madkaikar, he is his own man and his win had nothing to do with the BJP. It was just a plain clever move made by Manohar Parrikar, to get his horses from the Congress before the elections, so that he didn’t have to get into political trading after as his own stalwarts fell by the wayside. His “new recruits”, Mauvin Godinho, Pandurang Madkaikar, Pravin Zantye ensured a more than a double digit performance of the BJP in the state.
Moreover it has no presence in Salcete, barring the support of Churchill Alemao, who will play no part in BJP’s consolidation in this belt. This will give the ruling party tag and space completely to the Goa Forward.
However, though the GF will see this as an opportunity, it won’t be a cakewalk as the now opposition space is dominated by the Congress in Salcette, and if the grand old party can keep its flock together and perform, BJP’s Mission Salcette will have to be kept on the back burner for at least three years. Meanwhile it will depend on “outsourced” champions like the Goa Forward
The almost unnerving compulsions of coalition politics have to be felt to be believed. Take for instance, the entire belt of Pernem, Mandrem and down to Siolim and Saligao and Tivim a BJP fortress has not only been breached but the “enemy” has reached the innards of the palace. Now it has to decide if their senior leaders like Messers Parsekar, Arlekar, Mandrekar, Parulekar, and Khandolkar, (losing MLAs of these constituencies) will plunge headlong into party work and re-energise cadre in those blocks or will the party prefer to work with a new team to reclaim those constituencies which are held by the Congress (2), MGP(1) and Goa Forward (2). And barring Mandrem and Tivim with Congress MLAs, the others have MLAs who are cabinet ministers who are not from the BJP and will use their term to consolidate their own hold on their constituencies.
The organisation will therefore not only have to have a roadmap which will be made after analysing the reasons for this kind of a performance, which we are told, was unexpected even through the eyes of the most realistic and pragmatic BJP members in the state. It is also looking at a landscape which has changed. And it has to come to terms with its now well defined strategy of mergers and acquisitions which simply looks at not defeating the enemy but converting him. Vishwajit Rane could be their first prize for following this strategy.
This begs the question. Will the mantra of winning at all costs and in any manner, impact organisation building? Are we seeing the beginning of a very successful BJP which can form governments from any situation, at the cost of a weakened party whose roadmap for revival needs clearer and firmer definition?
There are no easy answers but there is no denying that these questions need to be asked.
