By claiming landslide victories in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has shown how elections are won. On the other hand, Congress kept day-dreaming that there is an anti-Modi wave in the country which would benefit them. BJP won by a big margin in three out of the four states, while Congress expectedly won in Telangana by ousting BRS.
Although the BJP lost in the country’s newest State, they were still able to up their number from one MLA in 2018 to nine in 2023. These results have made two things clear. BJP’s formula of micro-management of eyeing and earning every single vote has proven to be successful yet again, while Congress has to learn what happens when the control of the party remains firmly with Central leaders instead of focusing on creating the network of workers on the ground level.
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Congress may be given a benefit of the doubt in Rajasthan given the State’s pattern of shifting power after every term, but what how did the party fail in Madhya Pradesh? Did Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra in the Hindi heartland serve any purpose? More importantly, why did the INDIA bloc’s experiment not succeed? Congress was under the impression that they could win in Madhya Pradesh the way they did in Karnataka, by raking up the matter of corruption during the Bommai government. However, that did not happen because Congress did not work on ground level in Madhya Pradesh the way they did in Karnataka. Was there no public discontent against Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led government’s corruption? There certainly was. Was Congress not successful in exposing the Chouhan government’s misgovernance? They were. And yet, BJP tasted victory by winning 166 out of 230 seats – a staggering 72%, while Congress had to satisfy themselves with 63 seats. In Chattisgarh, Congress not only failed to retain power but also could not cross the mark of 40 seats, where total number of constituencies are 90. BJP claimed power by winning 55 seats.
Interestingly, a majority of the BJP candidates have won with a margin of only three-digit vote count. In some constituencies, this difference is even lower than 500 votes. But this is the secret to BJP’s success, which lies in their micro-management. Every booth head keeps himself well-informed regarding every single voter in his area. Based on that information, they categorise every vote. They also work throughout the year to gain the votes which previously were not in their favour. One supervisor guides four booth heads and they reports to him every month. This system of BJP remains operational for all 365 days.
It would be naive and laughable to say that BJP were unaware about discontent against them in Madhya Pradesh and that they retained power only because of the Modi miracle. The truth is the BJP had already planned a year ago how to minimise public resentment. Making five-time Member of Parliament and Minister of State for Food Processing Industries Prahlad Singh Patel contest assembly elections from Narsinghpur constituency was a small part of that pre-planning. Shivraj ‘mama’ single-handedly would not have been able to retain power in the Hindi heartland. That is why despite being a chief minister, Shivraj ‘mama’ has to obey orders from Delhi to respectfully invite the labourer who was urinated on by BJP MP’s relative to his home, wash his feet, felicitate him and also have a meal with him. BJP was well aware that without votes from tribals, dalits and OBC voters, achieving the target was impossible. BJP has dominated in rural parts of all the three Hindi-speaking States, which has led to the saffron party establishing power in 12 States, while Congress has dwindled down to only three.
BJP will definitely benefit from these assembly elections which sets the tone for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. However, BJP’s back-up plan became operational two years ago as they intend to win 156 Lok Sabha seats they have never won before. It is evident that BJP wants to retain power in the 2024 general elections with an absolute majority. Congress and BJP both had their fair share of ‘revadi’ announcements during the campaigns such as free electricity, free travel and Rs 2,000 a month for women. However, the BJP proved that without proper management, one cannot win elections by making mere announcements.
The losses in these States have also damaged Congress’ position in the INDIA front where the party will lose bargaining power. Therefore, apart from strengthening the network of local party workers in the country, they will also have to compromise with the alliance parties. After suffering defeats, Rahul Gandhi said that the battle of ideologies will continue, however, if the Congress fails to build a system to back-up their battle of thoughts then they will barely gain anything in 2024 general elections.
