Expecting in Goa, a Maharashtra-style alliance where the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party teamed up with the Shiv Sena to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party out of power is hoping for a little too much. The numbers just don’t add up in this State, in fact the opposition falls woefully short of the majority mark. Any attempt to topple the government in Goa will require a minimum of 18 of the 27 BJP MLAs breaking away from the party and merging with another, or forming their own party, so as to not attract the anti-defection law. Can this happen?
In July, 10 MLAs broke away from the Congress and joined the BJP, but these MLAs were in the opposition and were assured the opportunity of being in power for the rest of the term. That was the biggest lure that drew them to the other side. In the current case, there is no guarantee that a group that breaks away will be able, or will be allowed, to form a new government. So, why will 18 MLAs of a ruling group, that is perched strong in the saddle, gamble on the mere possibility of being able to form a government by leaving the party?
Look at the numbers – BJP has 27 out of 40 MLAs in the Assembly and has the support of two Independents and 1 Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party MLA, as the regional party is yet to officially withdraw from the alliance. That makes it officially 30 MLAs in the government side in a House of 40. That leaves 10 MLAs in the opposition – Congress with five MLAs, GFP with three, one Independent and one from the Nationalist Congress Party. However, in the last monsoon session of the Assembly, the NCP MLA often voted with the BJP government, rather than with the opposition, which places a question mark on his support.
Yet, if following the realignment in Maharashtra there is a similar rearrangement in Goa, then GFP and NCP coming together makes if four MLAs in the Assembly, as Shiv Sena has no legislator in the State. So, how does Shiv Sena benefit from toppling the Goa government? Besides, the equation between the Congress and the GFP is such at the moment, that neither can see eye-to-eye, and their coming together would require more than the outside possibility of forming the government. It would need the real certainty, and not just probability of coming to power, to bring the two parties together. There is no guarantee of that.
Currently there are only statements that are being made by a very few politicians, which have created a mild flutter in political circles. Local Congress leaders have been dismissive of the realignment of forces. The MGP has also wondered how it could be possible to form a new government, and the BJP has said that their numbers in the Assembly from 27 may climb to 30. The Chief Minister has called all the speculation a joke. Congress with five MLAs, NCP with one MLA are showing a tepid interest in realigning, can GFP with three MLAs bring about the change?
There exists no real possibility of a change in government in Goa unless the BJP can be split, and at the moment that appears to be a Herculean task, despite the whispers of a G18 taking shape in the BJP. Goa’s politicians would do better to concentrate on the issues plaguing Goa, rather than dabbling in games that only lead to wild speculation. The Mhadei issue remains unresolved, so too the mining sector has been closed since March last year. Just off Goa lies grounded a ship containing naphtha. Aren’t these issues worth finding solutions to? Defections every few months cannot continue. This has to stop so that governance does not suffer.
