ROBIN ROY
Even as Akhilesh Kumar had paid a courtesy vis it to a vanquished Mam ata Banerjee after the results of the West Bengal Assembly polls were announced, the overall fractured bonhomie took a massive beating when the Bloc constituents seemed not to be on the same page prior to the crucial polls. It may be recalled how the Congress and the Left openly fought against the TMC. The devastating outcome has sparked internal bristles and questions about the al liance’s unity (of whatever is left) especially before the 2029 general elections and the crucial Uttar Pradesh As sembly polls in 2027.
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It is surprising as to why the Congress took on the TMC knowing pretty well that this action would have benefitted the BJP. Also, the State Congress leadership frequently ac cused Didi’s party of unleash ing a “reign of terror,” alleging that ruling party workers regularly intimidated voters, preventing opposition agents from entering booths which affected the democratic tem plate of the state. As if the Congress’s state unit’s scathing criticism was not enough, at the national level, Congress’s central lead ership criticised the TMC’s governance model and its reluctance to completely sup port a broader base of the Op position unity. Now, with the BJP sweeping the Assembly polls in West Bengal and the TMC’s drub bing… the major highlight ing factor has been a major retreat for regional satraps across the country’s political scenario. State-centric parties or rather regional parties or to be more precise, parties with regional bases are increasing ly struggling to maintain their dominance against a consol idated national ruling appa ratus, forcing them to move away from the traditional vote banks. With the TMC reduced to 80 seats… a massive fall from 215 in 2021 Assembly polls, the Opposition or the India Bloc loses one more major player especially at the na tional level.
It is needless to say that Mamata Banerjee had served as the most vocal and formi dable Opposition voice. With the Bengal poll results out, Opposition parties are now confined to just seven states and most of them are in the southern part of the country. In Punjab, however, the Aam Aadmi Party doesn’t look very confident especially after its Delhi drubbing. Now, especially with Mam ata gone and to make things worse for the INDIA bloc Sta lin also had to taste defeat, the Congress may be consid ering itself to be the pivotal party of the Bloc especially after the Kerala episode. However, had Mamata won in Bengal this time, she would have not only projected her self as leader of the Bloc but also the prime ministerial candidate for the Bloc in the 2029 Lok Sabha polls. However, apart from the above-mentioned “consola tion prize” for the Congress, the Grand Old Party has to realize that it has to win polls and win them on its own or otherwise it has to be satis fied with joining hands with regional groups and satraps to compete for the Chair. Why the cookie crumbled for the TMC Following a power-driven rule from the top, TMC grew rigid and once anti-incum bency set in, the top order failed to react to the dissat isfaction among ranks right down the party structure. Growing rifts within the party as grapevine has it that IPAC has to take the blame for allegedly “fixing” the candi date lists which badly dented the TMC fortunes as disgrun tled TMC men said at several TV debates across TV chan nels post the results.
The BJP brass capital ised on governance fatigue, corruption allegations, and a consolidated Hindu-identity campaign, while demographic and Matua voter realignments heavily disrupted the TMC’s traditional support base. THE AAP story Meanwhile in Punjab, the BJP’s immediate objective is to expand its base, where it holds only two seats in the Assembly. In the last Assem bly elections, it got a mere 6.5 per cent of the vote share. While its vote percentage rose to 18.5 per cent during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party failed to win a sin gle seat. The BJP has decided that, once again, it will con test the upcoming elections independently. Rajya Sabha politics Seven of AAP’s 10 Rajya Sabha MPs, including six from Punjab, have defected to the BJP in a surprise move led by Raghav Chadha, citing a loss of principles in the party. With this, the BJP now gains significant Upper House rep resentation from Punjab, altering the state’s political calculus ahead of the 2027 Assembly polls. What ails the Bloc The Opposition is a coa lition of competing region al and national interests. It must be noted that because their platforms are highly lo calised, forming a common national agenda is difficult. Resource and Narrative Deficit: They face significant financial and organization al disadvantages against the ruling establishment. Various parties with different ideo logical agenda often over shadow their common mes sage… if there’s any. Leadership Vacuum: The Congress party for long has been facing structural crises and leadership issues and this obviously creates a void in presenting a united nation al front.
With the TMC crashing out and with polls in sev eral states especially Uttar Pradesh slotted in 2027… it will be interesting to see how the Bloc gathers steam and if it does so at all. Not left behind Even as the BJP swept the Falta re-poll, the CPI (M)’s resurgence in Falta became a major focal point following the May 2026 Assembly by-election. BJP’s Debangshu Panda won by over 1 lakh votes, the CPI (M) secured a sec ond-place finish, drawing more than 40000 votes. After drawing a major blank in the 2021 Assem bly elections, the CPI (M)’s strong showing marks its best performance in the constituency since 2016. Political analysts attrib ute the Left’s rise mainly to a drift of minority vot ers from the TMC. TMC Collapse: The Tri namool Congress (TMC), long dominant in the re gion, was relegated to fourth place, shattering its bastion in the Diamond Harbour area. Observers are debat ing if Falta is an isolated case or the beginning of a broader restructuring of the opposition space in West Bengal. (Robin Roy is a Senior Journalist and former Senior Associate Editor, O Heraldo, Goa)
