Goan politics has always seen friendships of convenience and not of ideology. As a result the friendships have been weak and the glue that has held the relationship would melt quickly leading to wide open splits that have, in some instances, plunged the State into political turmoil. It has been seen at various times with coalition governments being cobbled together with greed being the only common factor. But we now have a sibling rivalry of a different kind.
In the early days the alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) had appeared to be one between parties that shared a closer understanding of each other’s ideologies. When the first came together in the 1994 elections, there seemed to exist a common ground between the two parties. By entering into an alliance with the MGP in that election, the BJP rode into Goa. At a time when the MGP was struggling to retain its influence as a party in the State the alliance with the BJP came in handy with the regional party playing the role of the elder brother. It didn’t take long for the roles to be reversed. BJP managed to quickly displace the regional party and eat into its vote share. Today, not only is BJP the major partner in the alliance, but has taken to bragging about it.
Though MGP did enter into pre-poll alliances with the BJP, in recent times once the votes were counted the regional outfit would drift towards whichever party was poised to form a government, but the two parties would again see eye-to-eye once elections came around. Even in 2012 they entered into an alliance and when BJP managed a simple majority of its own, it apportioned to MGP a fair share of the spoils of victory.
But the relationship now appears to be souring. For some months now the two parties have been taking potshots at each other. BJP MLAs and members have sought an end to the alliance and MGP had shot back that it’s ready to enter the 2017 election fray on its own. If in the past weeks it was the BJP MLAs and workers who were seeking to sever ties with the MGP, it is now the BJP State unit president who has added his voice to it lending credence to the speculation that the party is thinking on the lines. BJP’s bravado perhaps lies in the alliances it has been able to forge with other political parties like the Goa Vikas Party and lately with Atanasio (Babush) Monserrate.
And last week the BJP claimed to the elder brother in the alliance and that it would decide whether the alliance should continue. The MGP fired back the next day saying that being the oldest political party in the State it lays claim on being the elder brother. But what MGP did not say this time was that it would go alone in the 2017 polls. It maintained that it would continue to remain in alliance with the BJP in the coming polls. So here’s a situation where one party feels it does not need the other, while the other still wants to cling on to the fraternal relationship. Who then is the elder brother? Is it the party that has been around longer or the party that feels it can stand on its own? It’s a question both parties should ponder over.
At the same time, the BJP and the MGP should well realize that sibling rivalry often leads to a third party benefiting. The posturing of the BJP as elder brother and its bragging of solely deciding on the future relationship with the MGP will be music to the ears of the Congress, that is hoping to make a comeback in the State in 2017 after its worst ever performance in 2012 in the State. This actually makes the 2017 polls wide open and makes them more interesting. If BJP, MGP and Congress field candidates separately, and the third front steps in, it not only will be difficult to predict a winner, but there could be more than a few surprises in the results.
