The story of the Valpoi and Panjim by-elections went according to script and so have the reactions to the results of both the parties. The nature of both the by elections victories have given the ruling BJP the right to claim much more legitimacy, with the Congress clutching on straws, to look for some takeaways. Pitiably their search for straws was also in vain.
The sheer dominance of the Valpoi victory and the comfort of the one in Panjim – where the decreasing margin should be seen in the context of less voting with no change of Manohar Parrikar’s overall vote-share – gave Congress very little room to defend or justify the results. The excuses ranged from the tried and tested – EVM tampering; to the hackneyed – ‘Parrikar as CM and Vishwajit as Health Minister, had an advantage’.
The only genuine silver lining to the Congress campaign was the performance of Girish Chodankar, if seen in the context of his own individual performance. The 5000 plus votes is a good foundation for him and the Congress to build, if both have the patience to play the long term game of rebuilding.
There is really no point in drawing hope and seeing a wind of change in these votes unless the Congress has the capacity to tap this wind for even minute gains. The old story of change being visible but not showing either in the results or in the organisational revival, makes every such discussion fictional. In the cruel game of politics, numbers and results matter.
There has been transformation on both sides. The BJP, on the verge of being wiped out after the 2017 elections has weathered the storm and has more firm legs to stand on. The Congress after riding the wave has developed wobbly legs.
These results may not indicate that the BJP has won back the mandate it has lost, but in this world of hard politics, it now has one more MLA (14) than what it had at the end of the 2017 elections. And it has effectively cut into Sattari as a whole, since Pratap Singh Rane, as a Congress MLA, will ask his son Vishwajit to run both the constituencies, with no one in the Congress to challenge him. Undoubtedly this is the success of the betrayal project of the Ranes with the Congress falling victim. But the BJP isn’t complaining.
And there is yet another takeaway. There is a lot that the Parrikar government must do, in terms of decision making, to start reducing the trust deficit for which the government will undoubtedly be called to account if there is no delivery. The manner of its government formation is also a charge they will have to respond to with performance. But the ability to change, topple and reject the BJP lies only with the people. And if the BJP continues to win elections, in whatever form or manner with thumping majorities, then the ‘BJP must go’ slogan emanating from some quarters, will be self defeating. The Congress must win for the BJP to lose. It won’t happen by simply wishing it away. And if the BJP gains seats at the cost of the Congress, where does this leave the ‘BJP must go’ mission?
Ultimately political change happens when there is an alternative which is visible and gets not just a mandate, but the ability to form a government. The anger against a stolen mandate can be quietened only if another fresh mandate or a fresh government can be delivered. And that will not happen either through the media or the social media. It has to happen on the ground. And so far, the BJP, after the ides of March 2017, has gained ground while the Congress has lost ground.
