One of the most keenly contested elections world-wide, that went by last month, one of the most ultra-vocalic, high-decibel occasions, and one of the prized slogans of the GOP we heard all over was the one in the Head-line above, next of course to the magic of the MAGA!
The results honestly, didn’t a bit come as a surprise to me, (notwithstanding the two impeachments and multiple juridical cases on him), judging from especially the last two debates and yes, it was a decisive mandate for Trump and his GOP and again, not only wins in seven out of the eight “swing-States”, but also with the added bonus that he has now majorities in all four wings of the legislature, the House (from both the Electoral College as well as by the Popular Vote), the Senate, and the Governors.
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This is an opportunity for him to fulfill his promises (some of which although, might not exactly be music to our ears here)!
I felt in my column of today, I pen a few thoughts on what this assertive Trump-victory 2.0 could mean to us here in India going forward. I plan to examine; a) the meaning of the Mandate, b) The Agenda-47 (His Manifesto) a little bit, c) Impacts on us here as I see it and d) way ahead..(As I prescribe for us in India)
My take:
a) The Mandate and its meaning: Forty-four years ago Ronald Reagan had famously asked voters in his campaign… “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
And voters being voters, not known for best memories, thundered the obvious. No tax-cuts, no growth in employment, lacklustre bourses, 11 million illegal “aliens” (immigrants) and on top of all of this, two big wars and its consequent cost of military, financial and humanitarian assistance!
They compared this with the slogans of Trump 1.0 days. They remembered the Corporate Tax-cuts he did, how he put to rest environmental restrictions for projects in the US, did away with the COP 15 obligations, enforced immigration restrictions, withdrew from a host of multilateral agreements with financial commitments and additionally no new wars to fight…issues that probably went down well across galleries!
Issues of values and governance, issues of divisive ambience, of integrity in reports etc are issues not always to be remembered in perpetuity!
b) The Agenda-47: There are 47 action points divided over a dozen
areas like the US economy, education, expansion of the President’s powers, foreign affairs, health care and social stability, infrastructure and urban planning, media and censorship, law enforcement, national security, social issues like options for abortion and transgender and LGBTQ+ rights.
I’ll reflect on just a few points of probable interest to Countries having close Diplomatic and Trade relations with the US.
There are clear-cut program for restrictions on external (other countries’) ownership on built-up infrastructure and strategic assets in the US as also regulations for sale of those already held by such countries.
There are plans to stop all ‘unnecessary’ regulations and costs concerning environmental restrictions likely to cause hindrances to American projects at home. There are plans for a Universal Baseline Import Tariff, which will progressively increase in case of ‘manipulation’ of the vendors’ currencies.
There are plans for reduction of Trade Deficits with partner Countries. There’ll be no ‘bail-out’ packages henceforth, tax-hikes would be rolled back, production to increase (including that of energy from also gas and fossil-fuel, return jobs and wealth to Americans, and in particular those from the auto Industry, including plans for increase in workmen wages and junking emission norms of the earlier establishment.
Bad news also for the COP29, developed nations who had committed $300billion!
While several analysts and institutions have put forth their criticisms on specifics, the ones that concern us would certainly be plans for the BRICS Currency (a symbolic bank-note was unveiled recently at the Kazan summit) as an alternative to the dollar for intra-BRICS commerce to start with.
Just to remember here, we are huge exporters to the US in terms of materials, products and services – cumulatively amounting to around 80 billion dollars annually!
“Reduction” of trade deficits – our Indo-US bilateral trade already entails a trade-deficit of around 30 billion dollar a year, not to speak of inward and outward FDIs. I think greater efforts are called for creation of sources and markets, not only among the recently-enlarged BRICS but also in a larger way to the newer areas in the Global South.
But I have a couple of new points here from our side. The values we add to our partner nations when we export our goods and services need
to be constantly buttressed with vigour.
I may mention also, that 1.5% of USA (comprising our Diaspora) pay 6% of Total Taxes there! (BCG Report).
In field of education, I think universities here have to enter the topmost ranks. It’s encouraging that 18 Indian universities find themselves amongst the QS top 100 World Universities, much more necessary, if you see our academic talents amongst our youngsters globally!
Although I’m not happy that our best youngsters have to move to the US for higher studies, it’s nevertheless a fact that the US earned $50 billion in 2023 from international students, 20% of which were from India. Also regretfully, no US university has yet set up campus here.
Plans for expansion of the President’s powers by restoration of “Executive Order” 13771 (speaks of reducing regulations cutting regulatory costs), in the context of renewed strength of Republicans in both Houses, could be a concern for Indian businesses in litigation in the US.
Also of concern are relaxation of gun laws, roll-back of abortion rights and LGBTQ rights!
In foreign affairs, plan for negotiating to end the Ukraine War is most welcome!
And before I Conclude: “Patriotism, Protection, and Prosperity”…tagline for William McKinley, in his Presidential Elections 1897, the Republican strongman (25th President of the US)…128 years ago, and it’s back once more today! Cheers!
(Binayak Datta is a Finance professional)
