Travels through Goa’s countryside are the best way to pick up political notes as you pick up straws in the wind, in tea shops, cycle shops and markets. These journeys also bust some myths and awaken you to new realities. Realities such as this. While the common belief is that Goa’s politics revolve around Salcete and the next elections will be about how Salcete is managed by the BJP, 2017 will see other crucial trouble spots erupting for the ruling dispensation. And these spots will not be in Salcete.
The pressure points are in the massive swathes of territory through Tivim, Bicholim, Mandrem and then the downward spiral through the Ponda taluka. This is BJP’s backyard, covering most of the North Goa parliamentary constituency where the party had swept. Two developments are taking place here. Firstly, the MGP which was near dormant politically has upped the ante and will be seen in its most dominant and visible avatar since the nineties. Secondly the independents who had initially pledged support to the BJP starting from Rohan Khaunte in Porvorim to Naresh Sawal in Bicholim are well and truly a part of the grand opposition axis building up, which will be equidistant from the BJP and the Congress. With Fatorda MLA Vijay Sardesai, the master plotter in the scheme of things too, the axis is taking off. While it is early days yet and its progress needs to be watched, the MGP’s resurgence is not in doubt, especially in this belt. It is as evident as BJP’s resurgence was evident in the run up to the 2012 elections.
What is happening is simple. There is a section of people who are aligned to the right, are members of the RSS and are well and truly a part of the sang parivar. While the BJP has let them down politically, the parivar hasn’t quite done so ideologically. The MGP is still considered a party whose ideology is an extension of the parivar ideology and a vote switch from the lotus to the lion is within their zone of comfort. This writer met a senior RSS ideologue in Bicholim who opened up on these issues and elaborated on why he too might be with the MGP in the next elections.
The BJP his has its task cut out. Not only will it have to battle the pit falls of an anti incumbency wave in 2017, it has to deal with a shift of parivar votes to its ally MGP which is in no mood to be an ally in 2017. This will need considerable time, travel and expense and most importantly focus away from Salcete. BJP’s bastion is under threat in Mayem, Bicholim, Darbandora, Ponda, Sanguem, Quepem and Canacona. Many former MLA’s are read to shift sides and if the senior leadership of the MGP is to be believed some big fish from the BJP are also likely to move.
These are not easy battles to face. The current ruling leadership is focusing on pleasing its MLA’s and pumping in more money for constituency development. It needs to pick and chose its constituencies well and service this belt of North Goa, if it even harbours hopes of saving its parivar from the onslaught of its junior ally, the MGP.
