GLADSTONE D’COSTA
The daily headlines screaming about the war, would have almost passed off as a bad dream. In fact, it is a nightmare sparked off by the inexplicable ac tions of a man intoxicated by wealth and power. When the strikes were launched by the US and Israel, the Evan gelical right-wing group of Trump’s MAGA supporters invoked a “holy” angle to the war. This evaporated when the Israeli police stopped the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, and Reverend Francesco Iel po, the official guardian of the Church of the Holy Sep ulchre, from entering the church on Palm Sunday. For the first time in centuries, Palm Sunday services were cancelled; a most “unholy” development. Police justified the move by citing the fear of Iranian strikes, but it set off global criticism at the start of the Christian Holy Week. Cardinal Pizzaballa, the head of the Catholic Church in the Holy Land, and the reverend were stopped outside the church, believed to be the site of Jesus Christ’s crucifix ion. Even the Holy Week ser vices were severely disrupt ed on grounds of security. It is a war with no clear aims and objectives. The swift Venezuela type de capitation just didn’t occur. Instead, it has spread to the whole Middle East and shak en the world economy. Sena tors and other officials have at various stages proffered various explanations for this totally irrational action. Some state that it was done to boost the arms trade. If there are no wars, the mili tary industrial complex stag nates. Others even stated that this was this was a ploy to manipulate the oil indus try so that Trump could ben efit from the oil price fluctu ation with insider trading. Outlandish as it sounds, one can’t help wondering. After all, a Pakistani general was entertained by Trump con trary to all protocol norms, so that Trump junior could launch a bit-coin firm in Pa kistan. Whatever the reasons for the strikes, there is no doubt that it has become one of the greatest tragedies of our time. Before it ends, a mod est estimate of the cost is pegged at $100-300 billion. 4 million men women and children have already been killed, injured, or displaced and rendered homeless. One of the stated objectives of the strikes was a “regime change”. Sceptics caustically agree; except that the “re gime change” they say will occur not in Iran but in the US, with Republicans being voted out both in the com ing by-election as well as the end of term elections. With the worst ever approval rat ings, down to 31%, there is no way the party can salvage the coming elections. In time, high oil prices, supply chain disruptions and recession could erode public support for US as well as govern ments elsewhere. It may turn out that the theocratic Iranian regime survives, but the Republican Party loses the US Congress in November as well as the presidency in 2028. The Is raeli PM struggles to avoid jail, and the Gulf monarchs who host American air bases witness an outbreak of pub lic protest against Western intervention. The war has precipitated the highest attri tion rate of senior politicians and defence personnel in any American presidency; with random dismissals on whims and fancies. The conflict has highlighted the asymmetries generated by technology. Drones worth $50,000 have outclassed multimillion-dol lar interceptors. The conflict has established that sophis ticated weaponry does not guarantee security. Wars are no longer fought as in the old days, by direct confrontation on the battlefield. They are now fought in secure bunkers with extremely sophisticat ed computers. Boots on the ground are made irrelevant. What the US and Israel thought would be a cakewalk for them has turned out to be just the opposite and Oper ation Epic Fury turned into an epic catastrophe. Iran’s resilience and determination astounded not only the US and Israel but the Gulf na tions themselves. Whether this was due to flawed intelli gence or ignored warnings is uncertain. That Iran attacked all these Arab nations was indeed a strategic surprise. It also plunged the entire world in its worst energy cri sis ever, including fallout in the US. There are over 70 US bases worldwide, which gave a sense of a security umbrel la to the host countries; this “umbrella” has now been shattered. Iran was no push over the way Venezuela was An unhinged Trump launched a tirade of abusive language with derogatory re marks against NATO leaders. The organisation in fact, was a strategic creation of the US itself, to contain the growing threat of communist USSR. The world has changed, and the USSR no longer exists in its original form. Therefore, attempts to ring the coun try with organisations like NATO, CENTO, and SEATO, no longer make sense. In any case the latter two faded away and NATO is as much an economic forum as a mili tary one. Post-World War II, notwithstanding its military might, the US has had many failures across the globe in recent decades, both in in terventions and ground in vasions; most of which were based on lies. Prominent ex amples include the 1961 Bay of Pigs intervention from the Cuban lie, the long-term con flict in Afghanistan, (2001 to 2021), the 19-year Vietnam fiasco from the Gulf of Tonkin lie, and the Iraq War from the WMD lie. In fact, it was General Douglas McArthur who wrote “anyone wanting to commit ground troops to Asia should have his head examined.” He strongly be lieved that committing a large number of ground troops in Asia would be a grave strategic mistake. The US does not have the right to intervene in the affairs of a sovereign state however autocratic it may be. If drug running is unacceptable, it must be so in every case and not just regimes which sprout anti US sentiments. The problem is that Americans are not particu larly interested in what their government does outside the confines of its borders, as long as there are no body bags arriving home. The American voter by being morally anaesthetised has ensured that the world will never be the same again. (The author is the Past IMA Goa State President, founder member and Past President of VHAG, and a past member of the Central Executive Committee of VHAI)
