The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially confirmed the onset of El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, cautioning that the phenomenon is expected to strengthen further during the ongoing southwest monsoon season.According to the IMD’s June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Bulletin, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have crossed the threshold required to declare El Nino. More significantly, atmospheric conditions have also aligned with the ocean warming, indicating that the ocean-atmosphere system has fully transitioned into an El Nino phase.Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) suggest that El Nino conditions are likely to intensify as the monsoon progresses. The latest three-month average Niño 3.4 index, a crucial measure used to track the phenomenon, has risen above +0.5°C, confirming its official onset.The IMD noted that warmer-than-normal temperatures beneath the Pacific Ocean surface are likely to sustain and strengthen El Nino in the coming months. Models indicate that positive sea surface temperature anomalies will persist through June-August and expand further across the Pacific from July onwards.El Nino has historically been associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall, prolonged dry spells, rising temperatures and drought risks in India. However, the IMD stressed that it is not the sole factor influencing rainfall patterns. Neutral IOD conditions currently prevail and are expected to continue, making them unlikely to either worsen or offset El Nino’s impact.Meanwhile, Japan’s Meteorological Agency suggested that a positive IOD could emerge later this year, potentially reducing some adverse effects on India’s monsoon. The IMD said it would continue monitoring the evolving situation and provide regular updates.
IMD Confirms El Nino’s Arrival, Warns of Stronger Impact During Monsoon
