The Chief Minister of Goa is triumphantly saying that Goa will be a “Green Zone”, which as per his statements is declaring it to be a “Safe Zone”, a “COVID-Free” State if there are no more positive or active COVID-19 Cases in Goa by the 20th of April. I believe that this assessment of the CM is not only wrong but also dangerous for the safety and health of Goans in view of the disclosure of the CM himself yesterday that the recent house survey revealed about 30, 000 people with respiratory symptoms. In fact, like many Goans, I am wondering why the Chief Minister is in such a mighty hurry to declare Goa a ‘Safe Zone’ as if like he is in a race to win a medal or a crown (Corona?)….and could it be also a factor in the reluctance and dilly-dallying of the Government in effectively addressing the Seafarers issue thus far?
Thankfully, the Health Minister of Goa has recently cautioned, I guess not just Goans but also his Chief Minister, that it is too early to call Goa a safe zone or a COVID-free State. I am in total agreement with him on this count and appreciate all that he and his medical staff have been doing to keep Goans safe and healthy despite apparent contradictory pulls and pressures in the administration.
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If the Government of Goa wants to declare Goa a COVID-Free State or a Green or Safe Zone, then Goans demand that the Chief Minister should answer the following crucial questions for the actual ‘COVID-Status’ Assessment of the State of Goa by the Citizens of Goa:
First of all, I wish to remind the Government that, as per the experts, there is a difference between the number of CONFIRMED Cases and the number of TOTAL Cases. The number of confirmed cases refers to those that are TESTED and found positive. The World Health Organization (WHO) defines a confirmed case as “a person with laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection”. While the number of total cases refer to the total number of people infected by the disease, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic, and who are NOT TESTED and therefore, not known. Hence, confirmed cases are only a subset of the total number of cases of infected that we do not know. Therefore, the only way to get an indicator of the real spread of a Pandemic is to do maximum possible testing.
In light of the above, Goemkars demand that the Government of Goa should answer the following 12 questions for Goans to know the truth:
i) Till date how many COVID-19 Tests have been conducted in Goa?
ii) How many of these tests were performed on symptomatic and how many on asymptomatic people?
iii) What period does this figure refer to (start and end date)?
iv) Does this figure include the pending tests results, too? How many?
v) Does this aggregate figure refer to only Government or also private lab tests? If so, what is the break-up?
vi) What is the break-up of the ‘Performed Tests’ (or Tests Performed) and ‘Individual Tests’ (or Individuals Tested, as an Individual may have required more than one test)?
vii) What is the testing practice or how many tests are conducted per case investigation on an average?
viii) What is the breakup of the number of PCR Tests and the results thereof?
ix) What is the breakup of the number of Serological (or Anti-Bodies) Tests and their results thereof?
x) From where were the samples taken for the PCR tests? Upper Respiratory Tract or Lower Respiratory Tract? Please provide a breakup with results thereof.
xi) In the case of Serological tests, after how many days of the suspected infection were the tests done and the break-up of results thereof?
xii) In the suspected cases of deaths in Goa, which type of Tests was performed on them? Give a breakup and in case of PCR tests, was anyone’s sample taken from the lower respiratory tract, ante-mortem or post-mortem, and the result thereof?
The above question with respect to suspected cases of death is posed in the context of a report of experts from USA who refer to a case of a person who, though showing COVID-19 related symptoms, was showing negative test results till the medical team decided to take a sample from the lower respiratory tract and got a positive result indicating that if the virus has moved to the lower respiratory tract the results may be negative if the samples tested are from the upper respiratory tract (False Negatives?). As per the same report, the results of the tests will also be determined by the quality of the sample taken – whether a trained person takes it, from where it is taken, etc.
In this regard, I wish to enlighten the public that when it comes to the deaths related to any Epidemic or Pandemic, the experts distinguish between the CASE FATALITY RATE (CFR) and the INFECTION FATALITY RATE (IFR). The CFR refers to the ratio between the number of confirmed deaths from the disease and the number of confirmed cases. Therefore, for example, when we say that Goa has no COVID-19 related deaths we refer to the seven confirmed cases and say that all have recovered and so there is zero death. But since we have not done enough of testing of the total population of 15 lakhs, we are not aware of the extent of the infection or spread of the virus or the total infected cases. It is possible, according to the experts that some people may die without being tested or even knowing that they were infected with the virus. In that case the IFR of the Pandemic is calculated by the ratio of total number of deaths from a disease divided by the total number of cases both of which are unknowns and cannot be accurately calculated but only estimated by the researchers and experts.
In view of the above, I believe the Government of Goa can declare Goa COVID-Free State ONLY when they have done enough Testing as per the scientific standards mandated and acceptable to the experts vis-a-vis the population of Goa. All other attempts to do so will amount to obfuscation of facts and fraud on the people of Goa putting the Public Health of Goenkars at risk. I want to remind the Government of Goa that the virus is colour-blind and no colour-coding can do away with a pandemic! Don’t say you were not warned!
(The writer is a MLA and the President of Goa Forward Party)
